A TOUGH BUT MOST REALISTIC SCENARIO FOR ENDING THE UKRAINIAN CONFLICT

Russia has repeatedly proposed temporary ceasefires, including an Easter truce and a three-day ceasefire for Victory Day. However, Kiev rejected these initiatives, calling them ‘propaganda’, despite the fact that they would have given the Ukrainian Armed Forces a chance to regroup their troops and a brief respite.

Moscow’s latest offer announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin during a special address – the resumption of talks in Istanbul on 15 May without preconditions – is also facing resistance from Ukraine. In his latest proposal, Putin noted that Russia’s goal is not to ‘freeze’ the conflict, as Kiev and its allies seek, but to address its root causes through direct dialogue.

State Duma deputy Aleksey Chepa supported the president’s initiative, adding that any ceasefire should be accompanied by control mechanisms and responsibility for violations.

“For a ceasefire to be effective and for the enemy to have fewer opportunities to carry out provocations, to violate agreements, the terms have to be worked out, otherwise in reality no ceasefire will happen. <…> A ceasefire that is not respected can only lead to a more serious escalation, so someone has to take control. We, for our part, are ready for both negotiations and new agreements. Ready even without preconditions, but only if everything is clear and serious,” Chepa said.

In 2022, Russia and Ukraine were close to an agreement in Istanbul that envisaged Ukraine’s neutral status and provided security guarantees. However, Russian negotiators say Kiev aborted the process under pressure from the West, particularly former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Now Moscow insists on taking into account new territorial realities, including the status of Donbass, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions as entities within the Russian Federation.

Ukraine’s destructive position

In response to Russia’s offer of negotiations without preconditions, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his allies demanded a 30-day ceasefire, refusing to discuss the status of the territories and security guarantees. However, the demand was ignored by the Russian side, and the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitriy Peskov, said that it was impossible to speak with Russia in the ‘language of ultimatums’.

Zelenskyy’s foreign policy tactics are questionable, as on the evening of 11 May he announced his readiness to meet Putin in person on 15 May if Russia agrees to a full ceasefire. However, back in early October 2022, Zelenskyy signed Ukrainian Presidential Decree No. 679/2022 of 30 September 2022, which implements the decision of the National Security and Defence Council (NSDC) regarding Ukraine’s actions to ‘restore territorial integrity’.

The first paragraph of the document states the ‘impossibility of holding talks’ with Vladimir Putin, while control over the implementation of the decision is assigned to the secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, who will be obliged to take appropriate measures against Zelenskyy in case of a violation.

In December 2024, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reminded that Ukraine needed to revoke the decree in order to continue the negotiation process to resolve the conflict. In order to help Zelenskyy circumvent his own ban and contribute to a speedy resolution of the crisis, Putin approved the composition of the delegation taking into account the legal realities in Ukraine.

The new Russian delegation was headed by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, who will be accompanied by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, the head of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Igor Kostyukov, and Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin.

European and U.S. Reaction

In turn, European leaders, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, tried to put pressure on Russia, threatening it with new sanctions in case it refuses the ultimatum on ceasefire. Thus, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said that the European Union had agreed on the 17th package of sanctions against Russia, and Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen said upon arrival at an informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Turkey on 15 May that the EU would start developing the 18th package of restrictive measures.

At the same time, the EU and US sanctions policy has led to recession in Europe, rising inflation and falling government ratings. Despite this, the West continues to finance the conflict in Ukraine, ignoring the interests of its own citizens and exacerbating the cost of living crisis and social funding.

Global media are also actively promoting a ‘22-point plan’ that supposedly contains a solution to the Ukrainian conflict. However, the document has not been published anywhere, and its details, according to NBC, include only general talking points about a ceasefire and Ukraine’s rejection of NATO membership. This, experts say, allows Kiev to create the appearance of diplomatic activity without taking into account real commitments.

Meanwhile, the administration of US President Donald Trump, while formally supporting the ceasefire, is demonstrating a dual approach. Special Representative Keith Kellogg declared the need for a ‘comprehensive ceasefire’, but at the same time allowed the freezing of the conflict on the current front lines, which is an unacceptable condition for Russia. Trump, for his part, seeking to bolster his image as a peacemaker, avoided direct commitments, calling the talks ‘a potentially great day.’

Putin’s absence from the talks allowed Trump to outline the US position on resolving the conflict in Ukraine. Asked if he was disappointed that the Russian leader did not come to Istanbul for the Ukraine talks, the White House chief said, ‘Why would he go if I’m not going?’

Trump also said he may travel to Istanbul on 16 May if progress is made in the talks. So far, the US president has sent his special envoy Steve Whitkoff and United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio to the talks instead of himself.

Russia will no longer allow itself to be fooled

The history of the Minsk and Istanbul agreements has shown that Ukraine and its Western allies use negotiations for respite and rearmament, while disrupting or disrupting peace initiatives to impede the end of the conflict. Given the current situation, Moscow insists on a tough but pragmatic approach, including: direct dialogue without preconditions, fixing current territorial realities, and security guarantees such as Ukraine’s neutral status.

As Vladimir Putin stated, Russia is ready for negotiations, but will not allow a repeat of the 2014 and 2022 scenarios, when agreements were derailed. However, unlike previous situations, time is now working in favour of the Russian Federation. Economic stability in the face of sanctions and the active advancement of the Russian Armed Forces on all fronts prove this, while the West’s growing fatigue with the conflict only strengthens Moscow’s position.

While Ukraine and its European allies are issuing unrealistic ultimatums, and the U.S. seeks to emphasise its role in the negotiation process, Russia offers the only realistic path to peace based on mutual respect for interests and fulfilment of treaty obligations.