Trump’s Master Plan to ‘Cripple’ Putin: What Happens to the Economy and Oil | Doomberg (Energy, AI, and My Not-Too-Optimistic Predictions)

Funny how an economist who has any idea about the real world is hidden behind the image of a bride, lol.

15:34

“There’s a lot of movement in the oil markets, but not much excitement about the largest oil importer in the world stimulating their economy. Why is that? Two reasons: China is gradually shifting toward natural gas at the margins. Even a small shift in incremental demand can significantly affect the price of inelastic commodities.

One key point to note from this discussion is that oil is a managed price. OPEC aims to keep oil priced between $77 and $90 per barrel, preferably closer to $90. For months, oil prices have hovered at the lower end of OPEC’s desired range, often bouncing off the $70 mark. This $70 level serves as long-term support because OPEC can adjust production or restrict the supply of oil in the market.

People often view oil prices as organic market signals, but it’s crucial to remember that 40% of the world’s oil comes to market through a cartel that deliberately maintains elevated prices. As a result, oil is more expensive than it would be in a purely equilibrium-based market. This situation is temporary, as all cartels fail in the long run. However, OPEC has managed remarkably well over the years.

Currently, the price of $70 has less to do with economic stimulus in China and more to do with demand shifting from diesel to liquefied natural gas for long-haul trucks in China. Additionally, OPEC is managing its production to prevent oil prices from falling below $70. Eventually, prices may drop significantly unless there’s a major geopolitical event, such as conflict in the Middle East or an escalation in Ukraine.

At present, the market does not appear to signal such risks. Oil remains overpriced, natural gas is underpriced, and arbitrage will eventually bring balance.

Do you think there could be more geopolitical escalations in the Middle East if oil prices drop below $69, or even further toward $60 or $50?

Yes, I believe that is a fair assessment. The lower the prices, the more tension arises in the region.

Looking ahead, all bets are off after January 20th. The next three and a half weeks are critical, and we’ll see how things unfold. If oil were to surge above $100 before then, it would likely indicate a major event occurred during the transition.

In my view, the market is underpricing the risk of a non-peaceful transition. Trump has a track record of executing his stated plans. Watching his “Agenda 47” videos from March 2023, it’s clear he is following through on his promises, taking on powerful adversaries. These adversaries are not without their own resources and strategies.

The last four years have been challenging for democracies worldwide. The concept of democracy itself is under significant threat. For example, elections have been canceled in Romania, and right-wing parties in Europe continue to win elections but are often blocked from forming governments.

In the U.S., Trump narrowly won the most recent election, and those on the losing side are likely to deploy significant efforts to counter this outcome. The situation is far from guaranteed to follow a traditional path. We’ve already seen an unprecedented campaign, two assassination attempts, and President Joe Biden being sidelined by his own party due to concerns about his mental fitness. Despite this, Biden remains in office.

The recent Wall Street Journal article highlighted the dangerous times we are in. The risks are substantial, and it seems people might be underestimating them.”

This cartel was mentioned by Putin during the 2007 Munich Security Conference, which I have posted.

AI Translated: Putin’s 2007 Munich Security Conference Speech in English, Voiced by Putin Himself(and short history of Russia and Putin by Max Blumenthal)

20:54

“Madame Federal Chancellor also briefly addressed this topic. She touched on the theme in the energy sector, noting that Russia intends to create uniform market principles and transparent conditions for all.

It is clear that energy prices must be determined by the market, rather than being subject to political speculation, economic pressure, or blackmail. We are open to cooperation.”

27:07

“Very powerful observations. One thing we've been watching with great interest is Trump's various Truth Social posts about Greenland, the Panama Canal, and Governor Trudeau. You mentioned something very interesting earlier: Venezuela.

Venezuela used to produce 4 million barrels of oil a day, but production dropped to a low of 350,000 barrels a day, though it's probably double that now. Venezuela sits on the largest hydrocarbon resource in the world. Greenland is blessed with a wide range of resources, including rare earths—everything the US military needs, which China currently controls. The Panama Canal is heavily influenced by China today. Canada has the second-largest hydrocarbon resource in the world.

I think Trump is going to revisit the Monroe Doctrine. US foreign policy, I believe, will focus on the Western Hemisphere. He will likely pull the troops out of Syria—he has said as much—and let China police the Middle East because that's where China gets its energy. He will cut a deal with Russia, and I think we will compete with China using the Western Hemisphere as the foundation. There's plenty of potential here.

The Western Hemisphere already produces more oil than the Middle East if you consider Canada, the US, Mexico, Venezuela, Brazil, Colombia, and Guyana. By the way, regarding Cuba, I suspect that under Trump, the US will probably lift sanctions on Cuba, leading to some reconciliation. That has been a tragedy, and US sanctions policy has been outrageous.

If you put bookends around the Western Hemisphere and allow the US to dominate it, you're talking about a superpower of unparalleled dimensions. We don't need the Middle East. We don't need to be in Ukraine. We don't really need Taiwan. There is plenty of opportunity and resources here.

I think Trump's main objective is an economic boom, focusing on the fiscal and economic well-being of US citizens. All of these actions — ones that many dismiss as trolling — fit into a broader strategy. He's a master troll, no doubt, but when you piece it all together, you can see the elements of a master plan.

The plan involves stopping the wars, getting out of the Middle East, protecting Israel, and focusing on the Western Hemisphere. It includes increasing domestic oil production, driving oil prices down, and enabling US supermajors to buy up valuable assets at a discount. There's a long-term vision here that people are underestimating.”

This guy is very knowledgeable about energy, but don’t be discouraged by his misunderstanding of geopolitics. He referred to Russia's attack on Ukraine's infrastructure during Christmas as war crimes, but he seems unaware that Ukraine refused Russia’s cease-fire proposal. That said, I agree with him a lot regarding energy, and I also share his concerns about the reaction of Neocons and Globalists to Trump's actions.

In my opinion, anyone who believes that international global capitalist cartels, such as Neocons and Globalists, would allow Trump to hand control of the Middle East over to China is mistaken.

While this guy is well-informed about energy, he is overlooking a bigger issue: AI. On December 4, 2024, OpenAI released the first system resembling AGI.

First, I want to point out something both funny and problematic. Everyone thought that mechanics and robotics would replace manual labor. The West outsourced their manufacturing jobs, leaving only white-collar positions. People believed that progress would make manufacturing jobs obsolete, but in reality, advancements in AI have outpaced mechanics and robotics. Instead of replacing manufacturing jobs, we are now on the verge of replacing white-collar jobs first.

Western job markets are largely built on intellectual white-collar positions, but these are the roles AI will replace first. So, instead of self-driving cars putting taxi drivers out of work, the initial wave of job losses will hit programmers, accountants, administrators, and other intellectual professions — essentially the foundation of Western job markets.

This is a significant issue that few seem to recognize. It’s also why AI researchers, like those at OpenAI, have explored concepts such as universal basic income. They, unlike many others, understand the profound consequences of such technological advancements.

Recent breakthroughs in AI have sparked a new chain of thought. Previously, building an AI model required extensive time and resources. Once the model was complete, it processed input, passed it through a neural network, and provided an output. OpenAI introduced the concept of a "chain of thought," allowing the neural network to process inputs iteratively, effectively "thinking" by communicating with itself and dedicating more time to solving complex problems. With sufficient resources, models can now refine their outputs by iterating internally, leading to increasingly sophisticated results. These systems are just beginning to surpass human capabilities in some areas.

Now it’s time to put on a tinfoil hat. Many people have heard of overpopulation conspiracies. In my opinion, it’s not entirely a conspiracy. Ruling powers may deliberately control population growth to prevent humanity from depleting the planet too quickly. Although they are wealthy and powerful, they still live under the same sky and breathe the same air as we do. Managing population levels may be a way to ensure their survival.

You might think this is far-fetched. How could they have such power? How could they achieve this? Let’s revisit a point mentioned in the main video:

“People often view oil prices as organic market signals, but it’s crucial to remember that 40% of the world’s oil comes to market through a cartel that deliberately maintains elevated prices. As a result, oil is more expensive than it would be in a purely equilibrium-based market. This situation is temporary, as all cartels fail in the long run. However, OPEC has managed remarkably well over the years.”

He also say at the end:

37:42

“the world is swimming in hydrocarbons it's just politics in the way”

They don’t have ultimate control over the population, but what they do control is money, the economy, and administration. They manage population levels through measures such as controlling energy prices to create scarcity. Policies like China’s one-child policy, the Green Agenda, and organizations like the WHO all serve to regulate population growth.

I mention this because if such control is their true agenda, then the advancements in AI present a serious problem. In the past, humans were necessary for intellectual white-collar jobs, but this is no longer the case. Essentially, this means they no longer need us, which leads me to suspect they may decide they no longer need as many humans.

As the global economy collapses and AI advances, they might conclude that a significant portion of the population is now redundant. My fear is that this year or the next could be among the deadliest in history. A large-scale war, a devastating epidemic, or a severe economic crisis — all designed to reduce the population — could very well become their goals.

In the past, they managed and reduced the human population through regulation and artificial scarcity. Even though machines and robots could handle manual labor, humans were still required for mental tasks. But now, with AI capable of replacing intellectual jobs, the necessity for human labor diminishes further. This shift could enable them to increase scarcity even more, further reducing the population. They could also accelerate depopulation through economic crises, pandemics, or war.

As Mr. Robot put it: "Time to grow up. There are no gods. Our closest deities are a society of the richest, most influential men in existence. They screw over the rest of us for profit, for fun, and then leave us in the streets for dead."

So now, when they truly don’t need us due to AI, who honestly believes they’ll care about us or refrain from attempting to reduce the population?

These are my predictions for the coming year. They’re not particularly hopeful, but given the lack of awareness among the average person, I genuinely believe they might succeed in their plans. Let’s just say that if people don’t wake up, the next year could be incredibly bloody.

Even UN messing with AI now.