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Russia’s agriculture sector continues to BOOM in face of Western sanctions

A major economic shift unremarked by the West, while multiple production dimensions come on line.

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Much is written about the vast strides Russia has made in matters agricultural. The many different Cheese types that were previously imported are now largely produced in Russia. The gains are across the edible board, from poultry, fish and pork through to fruits, vegetable and grains. Grains specifically have shown strong and steady growth due to increased investment as well as using the latest management and production technologies.

For example, wheat harvests in Russia are now not only satisfying Russia’s national demand, but also form a significant and steadily increasing part of the country’s global exports. In Soviet times, world traders and specs eagerly awaited the announcement of the wheat harvest or its forecast potential. To those punters on the world’s futures exchanges it usually signaled how much the USSR will BUY over the coming year to meet its internal needs, as they didn’t ever SELL. That has radically changed, much like the country, its direction, politics, beliefs, abilities and its people.

One small but glaring opportunity gap in this growth curve has only recently come to active investor attention, and is finding real support from the financial institutions in Russia. This gap is in the range of products and ingredients derived through the deeper processing of raw materials, in this case grains. These little known, not off-the-shelf products are an essential part of the processing and manufacture of almost all foods and beverages, and a number of pharmaceutical products, even textiles.

These ingredients are exclusively obtained through deep processing and treatment of wheat and other grains. They include dry wheat gluten, modified starches, glucose-fructose syrup, molasses, and feed mixtures (as a by-product of the technological process).

These products are widely used for not only food production, but also pulp/paper manufacturing, in low-alcohol and beverage industries, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, animal husbandry and in several other industrial sectors. The demand for these products both domestically and in the global markets is strong and continually growing.

In general, only 10-12% of such ingredients are produced in Russia while 88-90% must still be imported. The irony of the situation is that one of the major raw materials used to produce these products is wheat, which has been steadily growing to large surpluses these past several years. Today several multinational firms involved in agricultural processing like Cargill, Archer Daniels, L. Dreyfus and several Asian groups have already started either through M&A or through investing in their own processing to begin filling this void inside Russia.

Russian agricultural companies have been quite active too, as deep processing of grain results in products with far higher economic benefit than simply selling raw material or milled flour/starch. Establishing such deep processing projects also addresses the challenge of partial or even complete import substitution. These valuable and increasingly demanded ingredients can easily use even extremely low grades of wheat as perfectly suitable raw materials, which without deep processing are close to valueless.

One example is a start-up in the Kursk region, which is part of the famously fertile “black earth” area of Russia. The company, a 100% Russian start-up called OOO “InnPromBioTec” is a group of young and experienced professionals in the food processing industry. Their expertise has ranged from implementing and successfully commercializing production of food ranging from low-fat mayonnaise to fermented “kvass” (a traditional Russian grain based beverage), as well as oil from various grains. Today they are in the process of establishing a technologically cutting-edge deep wheat processing facility in the middle of this grain rich region.

With sanctions in place, while they officially do not impinge of food production or foodstuffs, they do and have affected the attitudes of traditional investors in the USA and the EU, not to mention the non-Russian banks. There is a palpable fear among the potential and logical investment partners in both the EU and US not to bend, therefore dismissing profit, rather than risk forging ahead and perhaps facing politically unstable censure from their own countries.

This Kursk based company therefore shifted its focus to the Far East, specifically China, Japan, Thailand, Korea and possibly India. This, while the most cost effective points of export realization and ready markets demanding such deep processed products are next door in Europe, who also import, albeit to a lesser degree, to meet their production requirements.

From an economic perspective, projects such as InnPromBioTec’s are attractive, especially in today’s markets. The capital required for such technologically intensive production is about 150 million Euro equivalent to process 250,000 tons per annum. Russian banks are willing and prepared to lend fully 80% of the needed capital as project financing, and the government affords a number of easements and incentives to make such projects as riskless and transparent as possible as they are considered a national priority, and are therefore quite secure and problem free.

Projects like this are not immediately operational, they must be planned as well as built from scratch, and this has been the bane of long term investing in Russia. Local investors want huge returns on their money and they want it almost immediately, therefore Greenfield projects have tended to suffer neglect.

Projects like deep wheat processing have a very long productive lifecycle, measured sustainably for decades with their products in perpetual and growing demand. Typically, the discounted payback period is from 6 – 7.5 years, with an internal rate of return of approximately 40%, profit margin realistically near 50%.

It looks like Russia’s steady economic evolution away from simply exporting raw materials, but opportunities to deepen the dimensions of production will be financed by visionary, practical and pragmatic Asia. The products of which inescapably will be demanded and consumed by Europe one-way or another, if only because of the secure price of proximity.

At a deeper level, this one project example is indicative of many similar projects coming into being throughout the length and breadth of Russia. The vast soybean farms in the southern parts of the Russian Far East have historically simply sold and shipped the harvests unprocessed across the border into Asia. Today, projects are starting up to add value to these crops by processing some of the myriad products obtained from soybeans both for internal consumption as well as for ready export markets literally next door.

The list goes on, with one of the longest coastlines on the planet (23,000+ Miles), the opportunities for fish, mollusk and crustacean farming is vast. The relatively low cost of energy in Russia and no shortage of fresh water also allows for controlled environment farming regardless of climate, be it hydroponics, greenhouses or commercial scale urban agriculture year round. All of these opportunities afford similar value added dimensions through processing and producing market ready finished goods.

On reviewing Russia’s economic path it is worth noting that it has managed to rebalance its exports from 70 percent energy in 2013 to 59 percent in 2017, according to the World Bank. As of this writing, the budget is again in surplus, and government debt stands at a notable 33% of GDP, the lowest among all of the G20 nations. Inflation is now running at a record low of 2.4% year-over-year, well below the CBR’s target of 4% and food inflation despite sanctions is close to 0%. Simply to contrast, and yes, sizes and volumes do make a difference, so just to cherry-pick: The S&P 500 Index is up just a tad over 13% for the past year, while at the same time the MOEX Russia Index has shown 21+% growth with an attractive 6.46% dividend yield, compared to 1.94% for U.S. stocks.

A major economic shift is occurring as secondary, tertiary production, manufacturing and the support and services infrastructure businesses establish and develop inside Russia. Some projections indicate that in these new business areas Russia will show a sustainable 5-6% year on year growth from 2018 – 2020, and perhaps greater. Incredibly, it is woefully under-reported even by the international financial press.

These secondary and tertiary industries have been historically left to the outside world to import into Russia. Be it in agriculture, textiles, machinery or oil patch technologies, Russia is now steadily filling these internal niches, and the opportunities for investors today have vastly expanded into many previously ignored dimensions. It only requires the business will and clarity of “blinders-free” vision to investigate, get involved and step up to the table.

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WalterWayne BlowfoxenburgGano1William Reston Recent comment authors
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Walter
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Walter

Sanctions against Russia are a big laugh. Sanctions are a big loss to EU countries who want them ended. Maybe the Putin-Trump meeting next month will correct this problem.

Walter
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Walter

Why are my comments not published??

Walter
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Walter

Why are my comments not published ???

Wayne Blow
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Wayne Blow

Go Russia, beats gas pipes and bomb making eh ??

foxenburg
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foxenburg

You say Russia is short of, inter alia…..dry wheat gluten, modified starches, glucose-fructose syrup, molasses.

The Russians would be wise to steer clear of this obesity-inducing Western crap.

Gano1
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Gano1

Farm machinery is selling well too, they build some very good machinery and it is cheaper than Western junk.

William Reston
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William Reston

As usual, excellent insights Mr. Goncharoff. Your opinion articles are a breath of fresh air and a wonderful truth window into Russia for all of us “out here” in the States. Thank you!

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Parliament Seizes Control Of Brexit From Theresa May

Zerohedge

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Schaeuble, Greece and the lessons learned from a failed GREXIT (Video)

The Duran Quick Take: Episode 117.

Alex Christoforou

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The Duran’s Alex Christoforou and Editor-in-Chief Alexander Mercouris examine a recent interview with the Financial Times given by Wolfgang Schäuble, where the former German Finance Minister, who was charged with finding a workable and sustainable solution to the Greek debt crisis, reveals that his plan for Greece to take a 10-year “timeout” from the eurozone (in order to devalue its currency and save its economy) was met with fierce resistance from Brussels hard liners, and Angela Merkel herself.

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Via FT

“Look where we’re sitting!” says Wolfgang Schäuble, gesturing at the Berlin panorama stretching out beneath us. It is his crisp retort to those who say that Europe is a failure, condemned to a slow demise by its own internal contradictions. “Walk through the Reichstag, the graffiti left by the Red Army soldiers, the images of a destroyed Berlin. Until 1990 the Berlin Wall ran just below where we are now!”

We are in Käfer, a restaurant on the rooftop of the Reichstag. The views are indeed stupendous: Berlin Cathedral and the TV Tower on Alexanderplatz loom through the mist. Both were once in communist East Berlin, cut off from where we are now by the wall. Now they’re landmarks of a single, undivided city. “Without European integration, without this incredible story, we wouldn’t have come close to this point,” he says. “That’s the crazy thing.”

As Angela Merkel’s finance minister from 2009 to 2017, Schäuble was at the heart of efforts to steer the eurozone through a period of unprecedented turbulence. But at home he is most associated with Germany’s postwar political journey, having not only negotiated the 1990 treaty unifying East and West Germany but also campaigned successfully for the capital to move from Bonn.

For a man who has done so much to put Berlin — and the Reichstag — back on the world-historical map, it is hard to imagine a more fitting lunch venue. With its open-plan kitchen and grey formica tables edged in chrome, Käfer has a cool, functional aesthetic that is typical of the city. On the wall hangs a sketch by artists Christo and Jeanne-Claude, who famously wrapped the Reichstag in silver fabric in 1995.

The restaurant has one other big advantage: it is easy to reach from Schäuble’s office. Now 76, he has been confined to a wheelchair since he was shot in an assassination attempt in 1990, and mobility is an issue. Aides say he tends to avoid restaurants if he can, especially at lunchtime.

As we take our places, we talk about Schäuble’s old dream — that German reunification would be a harbinger of European unity, a step on the road to a United States of Europe. That seems hopelessly out of reach in these days of Brexit, the gilets jaunes in France, Lega and the Five Star Movement in Italy.

Some blame Schäuble himself for that. He was, after all, the architect of austerity, a fiscal hawk whose policy prescriptions during the euro crisis caused untold hardship for millions of ordinary people, or so his critics say. He became a hate figure, especially in Greece. Posters in Athens in 2015 depicted him with a Hitler moustache below the words: “Wanted — for mass poverty and devastation”.

Schäuble rejects the criticism that austerity caused the rise of populism. “Higher spending doesn’t lead to greater contentment,” he says. The root cause lies in mass immigration, and the insecurities it has unleashed. “What European country doesn’t have this problem?” he asks. “Even Sweden. The poster child of openness and the willingness to help.”

But what of the accusation that he didn’t care enough about the suffering of the southern Europeans? Austerity divided the EU and spawned a real animus against Schäuble. I ask him how that makes him feel now. “Well I’m sad, because I played a part in all of that,” he says, wistfully. “And I think about how we could have done it differently.”

I glance at the menu — simple German classics with a contemporary twist. I’m drawn to the starters, such as Oldenburg duck pâté and the Müritz smoked trout. But true to his somewhat abstemious reputation, Schäuble has no interest in these and zeroes in on the entrées. He chooses Käfer’s signature veal meatballs, a Berlin classic. I go for the Arctic char and pumpkin.

Schäuble switches seamlessly back to the eurozone crisis. The original mistake was in trying to create a common currency without a “common economic, employment and social policy” for all eurozone member states. The fathers of the euro had decided that if they waited for political union to happen first they’d wait forever, he says.

Yet the prospects for greater political union are now worse than they have been in years. “The construction of the EU has proven to be questionable,” he says. “We should have taken the bigger steps towards integration earlier on, and now, because we can’t convince the member states to take them, they are unachievable.”

Greece was a particularly thorny problem. It should never have been admitted to the euro club in the first place, Schäuble says. But when its debt crisis first blew up, it should have taken a 10-year “timeout” from the eurozone — an idea he first floated with Giorgos Papakonstantinou, his Greek counterpart between 2009 and 2011. “I told him you need to be able to devalue your currency, you’re not competitive,” he says. The reforms required to repair the Greek economy were going to be “hard to achieve in a democracy”. “That’s why you need to leave the euro for a certain period. But everyone said there was no chance of that.”

The idea didn’t go away, though. Schäuble pushed for a temporary “Grexit” in 2015, during another round of the debt crisis. But Merkel and the other EU heads of government nixed the idea. He now reveals he thought about resigning over the issue. “On the morning the decision was made, [Merkel] said to me: ‘You’ll carry on?’ . . . But that was one of the instances where we were very close [to my stepping down].”

It is an extraordinary revelation, one that highlights just how rocky his relationship with Merkel has been over the years. Schäuble has been at her side from the start, an éminence grise who has helped to resolve many of the periodic crises of her 13 years as chancellor. But it was never plain sailing.

“There were a few really bad conflicts where she knew too that we were on the edge and I would have gone,” he says. “I always had to weigh up whether to go along with things, even though I knew it was the wrong thing to do, as was the case with Greece, or whether I should go.” But his sense of duty prevailed. “We didn’t always agree — but I was always loyal.”

That might have been the case when he was a serving minister, but since becoming speaker of parliament in late 2017 he has increasingly distanced himself from Merkel. Last year, when she announced she would not seek re-election as leader of the Christian Democratic Union, the party that has governed Germany for 50 of the past 70 years, Schäuble openly backed a candidate described by the Berlin press as the “anti-Merkel”. Friedrich Merz, a millionaire corporate lawyer who is the chairman of BlackRock Germany, had once led the CDU’s parliamentary group but lost out to Merkel in a power struggle in 2002, quitting politics a few years later. He has long been seen as one of the chancellor’s fiercest conservative critics — and is a good friend of Schäuble’s.

Ultimately, in a nail-biting election last December, Merkel’s favoured candidate, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, narrowly beat Merz. The woman universally known as “AKK” is in pole position to succeed Merkel as chancellor when her fourth and final term ends in 2021.

I ask Schäuble if it’s true that he had once again waged a battle against Merkel and once again lost. “I never went to war against Ms Merkel,” he says. “Everybody says that if I’m for Merz then I’m against Merkel. Why is that so? That’s nonsense.”

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The conclusion of Russiagate, Part I – cold, hard reality

The full text of Attorney General William P Barr’s summary is here offered, with emphases on points for further analysis.

Seraphim Hanisch

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The conclusion of the Russiagate investigation, led by Special Counsel Robert Mueller, was a pivotal media watershed moment. Even at the time of this writing there is a great deal of what might be called “journalistic froth” as opinion makers and analysts jostle to make their takes on this known to the world. Passions are running very high in both the Democrat / anti-Trump camps, where the reactions range from despondency to determined rage to not swallow the gigantic red pill that the “no collusion with Russia” determination offers. In the pro-Trump camp, the mood is deserved relief, but many who support the President are also realists, and they know this conflict is not over.

Where the pivot will go and what all this means is something that will unfold, probably relatively quickly, over the next week or two. But we want to offer a starting point here from which to base further analysis. At this time, of course, there are few hard facts other than the fact that Robert Mueller III submitted his report to the US Attorney General, William Barr, who then wrote and released his own report to the public Sunday evening. We reproduce that report here in full, with some emphases added to points that we think will be relevant to forthcoming pieces on this topic.

The end of the Mueller investigation brings concerns, hopes and fears to many people, on topics such as:

  • Will President Trump now begin to normalize relations with President Putin at full speed?
  • In what direction will the Democrats pivot to continue their attacks against the President?
  • What does this finding to to the 2020 race?
  • What does this finding do to the credibility of the United States’ leadership establishment, both at home and abroad?
  • What can we learn about our nation and culture from this investigation?
  • How does a false narrative get maintained so easily for so long, and
  • What do we do, or what CAN we do to prevent this being repeated?

These questions and more will be addressed in forthcoming pieces. But for now, here is the full text of the letter written by Attorney General William Barr concerning the Russia collusion investigation.

Dear Chairman Graham, Chairman Nadler, Ranking Member Feinstein, and Ranking Member Collins:
As a supplement to the notification provided on Friday, March 22, 2019, I am writing today to advise you of the principal conclusions reached by Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller and to inform you about the status of my initial review of the report he has prepared.
The Special Counsel’s Report
On Friday, the Special Counsel submitted to me a “confidential report explaining the prosecution or declination decisions” he has reached, as required by 28 C.F.R. § 600.8(c). This report is entitled “Report on the Investigation into Russian Interference in the 2016 Presidential Election.” Although my review is ongoing, I believe that it is in the public interest to describe the report and to summarize the principal conclusions reached by the Special Counsel and the results of his investigation.
The report explains that the Special Counsel and his staff thoroughly investigated allegations that members of the presidential campaign of Donald J. Trump, and others associated with it, conspired with the Russian government in its efforts to interfere in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, or sought to obstruct the related federal investigations. In the report, the Special Counsel noted that, in completing his investigation, he employed 19 lawyers who were assisted by a team of approximately 40 FBI agents, intelligence forensic accountants, and other professional staff. The Special Counsel issued more than 2,800 subpoenas, executed nearly 500 search warrants, obtained more than 230 orders for communication records, issued almost 50 orders authorizing use of pen registers, made 13 requests to foreign governments for evidence, and interviewed approximately 500 witnesses.
The Special Counsel obtained a number of indictments and convictions of individuals and entities in connection with his investigation, all of which have been publicly disclosed. During the course of his investigation, the Special Counsel also referred several matters to other offices for further action. The report does not recommend any further indictments, nor did the Special Counsel obtain any sealed indictments that have yet to be made public. Below, I summarize the principal conclusions set out in the Special Counsel’s report.
Russian Interference in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election.
The Special Counsel’s report is divided into two parts. The first describes the results of the Special Counsel’s investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. The report outlines the Russian effort to influence the election and documents crimes committed by persons associated with the Russian government in connection with those efforts. The report further explains that a primary consideration for the Special Counsel’s investigation was whether any Americans including individuals associated with the Trump campaign joined the Russian conspiracies to influence the election, which would be a federal crime. The Special Counsel’s investigation did not find that the Trump campaign or anyone associated with it conspired or coordinated with Russia in its efforts to influence the 2016 U.S. presidential election. As the report states: “[T]he investigation did not establish that members of the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities.”
The Special Counsel’s investigation determined that there were two main Russian efforts to influence the 2016 election. The first involved attempts by a Russian organization, the Internet Research Agency (IRA), to conduct disinformation and social media operations in the United States designed to sow social discord, eventually with the aim of interfering with the election. As noted above, the Special Counsel did not find that any U.S. person or Trump campaign official or associate conspired or knowingly coordinated with the IRA in its efforts, although the Special Counsel brought criminal charges against a number of Russian nationals and entities in connection with these activities.
The second element involved the Russian government’s efforts to conduct computer hacking operations designed to gather and disseminate information to influence the election. The Special Counsel found that Russian government actors successfully hacked into computers and obtained emails from persons affiliated with the Clinton campaign and Democratic Party organizations, and publicly disseminated those materials through various intermediaries, including WikiLeaks. Based on these activities, the Special Counsel brought criminal charges against a number of Russian military officers for conspiring to hack into computers in the United States for purposes of influencing the election. But as noted above, the Special Counsel did not find that the Trump campaign, or anyone associated with it, conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in these efforts, despite multiple offers from Russian-affiliated individuals to assist the Trump campaign.
Obstruction of Justice.
The report’s second part addresses a number of actions by the President most of which have been the subject of public reporting that the Special Counsel investigated as potentially raising obstruction-of-justice concerns. After making a “thorough factual investigation” into these matters, the Special Counsel considered whether to evaluate the conduct under Department standards governing prosecution and declination decisions but ultimately determined not to make a traditional prosecutorial judgment. The Special Counsel therefore did not draw a conclusion one way or the other as to whether the examined conduct constituted obstruction. Instead, for each of the relevant actions investigated, the report sets out evidence on both sides of the question and leaves unresolved what the Special Counsel views as “difficult issues” of law and fact concerning whether the President’s actions and intent could be viewed as obstruction. The Special Counsel states that “while this report does not conclude that the President committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him.”
The Special Counsel’s decision to describe the facts of his obstruction investigation without reaching any legal conclusions leaves it to the Attorney General to determine whether the conduct described in the report constitutes a crime. Over the course of the investigation, the Special Counsel’s office engaged in discussions with certain Department officials regarding many of the legal and factual matters at issue in the Special Counsel’s obstruction investigation. After reviewing the Special Counsel’s final report on these issues; consulting with Department officials, including the Office of Legal Counsel; and applying the principles of federal prosecution that guide our charging decisions, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and I have concluded that the evidence developed during the Special Counsel’s investigation is not sufficient to establish that the President committed an obstruction-of-justice offense. Our determination was made without regard to, and is not based on, the constitutional considerations that surround the indictment and criminal prosecution of a sitting president.
In making this determination, we noted that the Special Counsel recognized that “the evidence does not establish that the President was involved in an underlying crime related to Russian election interference,” and that, while not determinative, the absence of such evidence bears upon the President’s intent with respect to obstruction. Generally speaking, to obtain and sustain an obstruction conviction, the government would need to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that a person, acting with corrupt intent, engaged in obstructive conduct with a sufficient nexus to a pending or contemplated proceeding. In cataloguing the President’s actions, many of which took place in public view, the report identifies no actions that, in our judgment, constitute obstructive conduct, had a nexus to a pending or contemplated proceeding, and were done with corrupt intent, each of which, under the Department’s principles of federal prosecution guiding charging decisions, would need to be proven beyond a reasonable doubt to establish an obstruction-of-justice offense.
Status of the Department’s Review
The relevant regulations contemplate that the Special Counsel’s report will be a “confidential report” to the Attorney General. See Office of Special Counsel, 64 Fed. Reg. 37,038, 37,040-41 (July 9, 1999). As I have previously stated, however, I am mindful of the public interest in this matter. For that reason, my goal and intent is to release as much of the Special Counsel’s report as I can consistent with applicable law, regulations, and Departmental policies.
Based on my discussions with the Special Counsel and my initial review, it is apparent that the report contains material that is or could be subject to Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure which imposes restrictions on the use and disclosure of information relating to “matter[s] occurring before grand jury.” Fed. R. Crim. P. 6(e)(2)(B) Rule 6(e) generally limits disclosure of certain grand jury information in a criminal investigation and prosecution. Id. Disclosure of 6(e) material beyond the strict limits set forth in the rule is a crime in certain circumstances. See, e.g. 18 U.S.C. 401(3). This restriction protects the integrity of grand jury proceedings and ensures that the unique and invaluable investigative powers of a grand jury are used strictly for their intended criminal justice function.
Given these restrictions, the schedule for processing the report depends in part on how quickly the Department can identify the 6(e) material that by law cannot be made public. I have requested the assistance of the Special Counsel in identifying all 6(e) information contained in the report as quickly as possible. Separately, I also must identify any information that could impact other ongoing matters, including those that the Special Counsel has referred to other offices. As soon as that process is complete, I will be in a position to move forward expeditiously in determining what can be released in light of applicable law, regulations, and Departmental policies.
* * *
As I observed in my initial notification, the Special Counsel regulations provide that “the Attorney General may determine that public release of” notifications to your respective Committees “would be in the public interest.” 28 C.F.R. § 600.9(c). I have so determined, and I will disclose this letter to the public after delivering it to you.
Sincerely,
William P. Barr
Attorney General

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