Trump helping Putin and Syria?

Authored by Serban V.C. Enache via Hereticus Economicus:

Donald Trump via his twitter feed has made some bold and correct claims regarding US foreign policy, past and present. He has triggered the duopoly, the mainstream media, and the Deep State. Here are Trump’s latest tweets on this…

Very smart not to be involved in the intense fighting along the Turkish Border, for a change. Those that mistakenly got us into the Middle East Wars are still pushing to fight. They have no idea what a bad decision they have made. Why are they not asking for a Declaration of War? Do you remember two years ago when Iraq was going to fight the Kurds in a different part of Syria. Many people wanted us to fight with the Kurds against Iraq, who we just fought for. I said no, and the Kurds left the fight, twice. Now the same thing is happening with Turkey… The Kurds and Turkey have been fighting for many years. Turkey considers the PKK the worst terrorists of all. Others may want to come in and fight for one side or the other. Let them! We are monitoring the situation closely. Endless Wars! Dealing with Lindsey Graham and many members of Congress, including Democrats, about imposing powerful Sanctions on Turkey. Treasury is ready to go, additional legislation may be sought. There is great consensus on this. Turkey has asked that it not be done. Stay tuned!

Although running current account deficits for more than a decade, Turkey isn’t completely vulnerable to Washington’s usual strong-arm methods. Its foreign exchange reserves almost reached 140 billion dollars in July, while its gold reserves shot up from 231 tonnes in January last year to 320 tonnes in October 2019. If Trump aims to help Putin [and Assad implicitly] and himself PR-wise with the Kurdish question, the sanctions currently in preparation for Turkey have to be extremely harsh in order to fulfill this objective. That means financial and commercial impediments, barring Turkish financial and non-financial institutions [state and private] from exporting and importing [critical goods and materials] and severely limiting their use of Trans-Atlantic payments systems.

On the CrossTalk episode Demystifying Syria, Peter Lavelle interviewed Ammar Waqqaf, Marwa Osman, and Mike Raddie, putting the spotlight on Western pro-war propaganda, the brainwashing of the US general public, and on the interests of the regional actors.

Emphasis was put on Turkey’s Erdogan, who is potentially aiming for a prolonged land grab [via a future referendum] with the help of pro-Turkish Syrians who he aims to settle in the territories controlled by YPG and SDF. The North-Eastern territory is rich in oil. The Assad Government obviously doesn’t want the Kurds to have sole control over these resources, and neither does Turkey, who thirsts for oil. Marwa Osman insisted Erdogan doesn’t have to be lenient on YPG, because he doesn’t have to worry about ethnic Kurds within Turkey, for many of them do good business with the Government and its president.

The Russian Federation is pursuing a diplomatic solution to the conflict, and Vladimir Putin’s visits to Saudi Arabia [October 14th] and to the United Arab Emirates [October 15th] are meant to get these state actors on board. Between Washington and the Kremlin, Ankara holds the cards. Erdogan enjoys tremendous leeway because he can blackmail all the sides involved – and in my view, he’ll always choose the path which gives him the most benefits and the most influence [leverage over others]. But if Trump comes down hard on the Turkish state with strong sanctions a la Venezuela, it will force Erdogan to stick to the Astana agreement he previously made with Russia and Iran, instead of partially respecting it or breaking it outright. What Washington can deny to Turkey in resources, Russia and Iran can provide. In turn, Erdogan’s pressure on the YPG and SDF, without the Yanks coming physically [directly] to their aid, forces these groups to cooperate with Russia, the Assad Government, and Iran.

Basically, Trump has two choices regarding Syria. Continue Deep State efforts at dismembering that country, or contribute to Syrian reunification. The latter option is going to earn him tremendous hate from the establishment, more so than before [if that’s even possible], but he’ll ensure himself a second term; because the anti-war demographic will remember and go out to vote accordingly. One thing, I believe, is certain… if Trump flip-flops on pulling US troops out of Syria, he will have completely sold out to the powers that be. And in that scenario, it doesn’t matter if he wins or loses the next election, because we know what to expect.