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LOCKDOWN LUNACY 3.0—It’s over. • Children’s Health Defense

By J.B. Handley, CHD Contributing Writer

If you’re hoping the COVID-19 pandemic will go on forever, this post may disappoint you. And, I get it. We have gone frothing-at-the-mouth nuts over a slightly above-normal virulence virus, with a unique and obvious age-distribution pattern that should have made containment easy and panic completely unnecessary. And, if you’re living in the United States, like I am, you probably think my declaration that this pandemic is “over” to be somewhere between wishful thinking and incredibly premature, and I hear you, too, although forgive me if I’m not sure you’re the one thinking clearly, given some of the things I’ve recently read. I promise to support my assertion with data, and the wisdom of people far more expert than me who are having a harder time being heard in the present climate of…bats#@t crazy.

Have we lost our collective minds? Yes.

You may not be one of them. In fact, I’m guessing the people who actually take the time to read my blog posts are the few remaining who haven’t been subsumed by the panic, but can we agree that most have? Jeffrey A. Tucker of the American Institute for Economic Research put it best in his excellent essay on July 10 titled, When will the Madness End?:

“I’m a practicing psychiatrist who specializes in anxiety disorders, paranoid delusions, and irrational fear. I’ve been treating this in individuals as a specialist. It’s hard enough to contain these problems in normal times. What’s happening now is a spread of this serious medical condition to the whole population. It can happen with anything but here we see a primal fear of disease turning into mass panic. It seems almost deliberate. It is tragic. Once this starts, it could take years to repair the psychological damage.”

I’m 50 years old, and I’ve noticed that younger people seem particularly scared of COVID-19, they are the ones I typically see biking and hiking with masks on, and this survey really corroborated that point:

The age gradient is striking. The young attach higher probabilities to people like themselves contracting Covid-19, of being hospitalized conditional on infection, and of dying conditional on infection. Arguably, young respondents have a lifestyle that exposes them to wider networks, and this may explain why they feel more likely to be infected. But their assessment of health risks conditional on infection are puzzling in light of the evidence that Covid-19 is significantly less severe for younger people…Third, and crucially, young people, as compared to older people, report substantially higher mortality rates for every age group. Young people are more pessimistic than older people not only about their own mortality risk but also about everyone else’s mortality risk.

Daniel Horowitz wrote a great article about this survey titled, New study: Millennials think their risk from COVID-19 is exponentially more than the true threat. He writes:

Perhaps the most destructive element of lockdown is the panic and fear that such severe measures help confirm, in this case, wrongly so, in the minds of the young and impressionable. As the paper concludes, “Experience has shown that communities faced with epidemics or other adverse events respond best and with the least anxiety when the normal social functioning of the community is least disrupted.” In other words, we need to flatten the fear.

I thought that survey was bad enough, but a different survey by Kekst CNC asking different questions revealed a simply astonishing figure: Americans over-estimated the TOTAL number of compatriots who have died from COVID-19 by 200-fold! When asked the question (in mid-July), “How many people in your country have died from the Coronavirus?”, Americans responded “9%,” which would be roughly 30,000,000 people, versus the actual number of 151,000. No wonder people are panicked (and wildly, wildly misinformed.)

 

 

Great, so we can at least agree on three points: 1) Society has lost its collective mind over a virus, and 2) younger people wildly overestimate the risk of dying from COVID-19, which creates a vicious cycle with Point #1, and 3) Americans have wildly overestimated how many people have died from COVID-19.

This is the third time I have written about the pandemic. My first and second blogs provide plenty of data and perspective. I think there are five bits of data that I’ve explored in the past that merit an update:

1. Infection Fatality Rate: The “IFR”, unlike the “Case Fatality Rate” that is more often quoted in the news, is the ACTUAL fatality rate of COVID-19. In order to accurately forecast the IFR, you need two bits of data: total deaths, and total people who have had the virus. The second data point is harder to find, because so many people are asymptomatic, but the most reliable data I have found is in this meta-analysis by Stanford’s Dr. John Ioannidis titled, The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data. What does the paper conclude? A median IFR of 0.25%. It’s hard to make this point strongly enough: a virus with an IFR this low would never, ever merit the response we’ve seen from health authorities and elected officials. COVID-19 is hardly a “once in a century pandemic” as some try to say, it’s a strong flu bug, nothing more.

2. Death rates by age stratification. The best science I have seen showing IFR by age is this study titled Assesssing the Age Specificity of Infection Fatality Rates for COVID-19: Meta-Analysis & Public Policy Implications. Check out this chart:

I wish this chart broke the age down even further, particularly in the 0-10 or 0-20 age range, where the IFR is effectively zero. These facts are slowly making their way into the mainstream, and the paper concludes: “Age and fatality risk for COVID-19 are exponentially related. In non-technical terms, COVID-19 poses a very low risk for children and younger adults but is hazardous for middle-aged adults and extremely dangerous for elderly people.”

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The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The Duran.

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Craig Watson
August 6, 2020

I understand all of this. But, the government will do anything to kill you or bankrupt you. That is their agenda and it’s well underway with this hyped cold virus. Consider your options when your rulers want you dead and buried because they can’t afford you anymore, or they have bankrupted you with a required poison injection called mistakenly a vaccine. Either be seriously physically damaged by their poison from Bill Gates forced into you and you’ll be charged a good $3000 or so – but that will be only the first injection and cost, or you’ll be killed one… Read more »

John Ellis
Reply to  Craig Watson
August 6, 2020

Your comment only rehashes the misery in the problem, thereby doing the will of the rich by driving readers away from the problem, so that the rich may be enriched by doing as they please with the problem.
And so, state your net worth, please round it off to the nearest million.

Sue Rarick
August 6, 2020

This flu will end right after the Elections and before Black Friday. The only logical reason for the panic was to destroy the economy and give the Democrats a shot at winning the election.
Even though all the polls say Biden will win I think that in fact all this draconian state and local restrictions is creating a hidden electorate that is actually going to vote for Trump.
I’m not a Trump fanboy and only voted for him because I saw Clinton as part of the murderous Obama crowd that killed millions in Africa and the Middle East.

John Ellis
Reply to  Sue Rarick
August 6, 2020

The 25% most wealthy have always kept the 50% working-poor so powerless by poverty and terrorized by killer-cops, that the bottom half of society refuse to vote.
Thereby, allowing the 25% most wealthy to be the voting majority, to win all elections and to decide if paid actor Trump, or paid actor Joe Biden, shall win the White House.

John Ellis
August 6, 2020

DON’T FEAR GOVERNMENT? — FEAR ONLY OUR EMOTIONS?

China does not fear it’s government, quite the contrary, as 1.4 billion Chinese now experience zero deaths and suffered a total of 4,500 deaths.

America has always feared it’s genocidal and imperial government, especially now that 330 million Americans suffer 1,000 Covid 19 deaths a day and a total deaths from the plague of over 160 thousand.

John Ellis
Reply to  John Ellis
August 6, 2020

CORRECTION
1.4 billion Chinese now experience zero deaths from Covid 19
and suffered a total of 4,500 deaths from the virus plague.

robert tyrrell
robert tyrrell
August 6, 2020

I am In Ireland. In my opinion, the totally panic is even worse over here, if you base the rate of panic on population size compared to countries like the US. In the last TWO MONTHS we have had a rise of just over 1000 cases with (approx) only about 100 deaths. mainly in people aged 70+. Yet it was announced today that all pubs clubs etc will remain closed possibly until 2021 due to the alarming raise in infections! I see NO dissent from anywhere. ALL MEDIA is 100% behind the government. It is actually frightening to see how… Read more »

John Ellis
Reply to  robert tyrrell
August 7, 2020

Ireland now suffers over 210 deaths per day from Covid 19
and a total of 1,800 deaths from the plague.

And so, you want to increase pleasure and wealth,
while I want to decrease deaths and to hell with wealth.

Robert Tyrrell
Robert Tyrrell
Reply to  John Ellis
August 7, 2020

Your figures are totally wrong nearly 1800 in total since march. Biggest day if I recall was in the the early 30s. Where you got 210 a day from is anyone’s guess.

Robert Tyrrell
Robert Tyrrell
Reply to  John Ellis
August 7, 2020

And john, it has nothing to do with wealth. It is mental health I am talking about.

John Ellis
Reply to  Robert Tyrrell
August 8, 2020

As evidenced by your comment, it is impossible for you to have mental health so long as you own wealth, own more property than needed for a comfortable life.
For now you have the mental anxiety of knowing that at any moment someone could harm your wealth, which will require you to be so violent and deadly as to call a killer-cop.

John Ellis
August 8, 2020

KEEP OUR BROTHERS SAFE
“Then the LORD said to Cain, ‘Where is your brother Abel?’
‘I don’t know,’ he replied. ‘Am I my brother’s keeper?” 

Sixth Commandment
“Do not take the life of any human or unborn baby,
or in any way contribute to their death.” 
If killing someone in a traffic accident is a crime called manslaughter, if you know that you have a contagious disease and by negligence infect and cause the death of others, if that also is manslaughter, surely Christians have a higher calling than that.

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