Makes the YES vote seem a bit meaningless.
This story is getting way little press, and it deserves a lot more exposure.
The leaked IMF docs reveal that whether Greece signs the Troika proposal or not (votes YES or NO in Sunday’s referendum), the country is facing extremely tough times. Massive short term pain (NO vote) or a long, long, long term blood-letting (YES vote).
2030, under best case scenarios, is a long time to be under Troika austerity and memorandums.
Just when you think things can’t get any crazier, they always do. The Guardian reports on unpublished Troika documents that show Greece is only too right in asking for debt relief. That for the Syriza government to sign what the Troika wants to force them to sign would see Tsipras et al plunge their country into a financial hell hole.
Even if Greece accepted all of the austerity measures demanded by its main creditors, the Troika, it still would not be able to make ends meet by 2030, according to IMF estimates revealed in a set of documents obtained by a German newspaper.
The most optimistic scenario shows that Greece would face an unsustainable debt in 2030 even if it agreed to the package of tax increases and spending cuts proposed by the European commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF in exchange for a five-month €15.5bn loan from its creditors.
These prospects were outlined in six documents that were part of the “final” proposal offered to Greece by the three main creditors on Friday. The papers were obtained by the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung and seen by The Guardian.
The estimates provide support for Greece’s decision not to accept the bailout deal. They prove that for Greece to survive economically, it needs real debt relief measures, not austerity reforms.
According to the IMF, Greece would be unable to sustain a debt level of 118% of GDP. In 2012, the organization said that 110% of GDP is the highest debt threshold the country could take on.
Currently the country’s debt level amounts to 175% of GDP, and that percentage could easily rise if the country were to slip into recession.
The documents stressed that even if Greece posted stellar economic growth for 15 years, the debt level would still be higher than 110% of GDP, adding that Greece had no chance of meeting that target.
Even if the economy managed to maintain a growth rate of 4% a year for the next five years, the national debt level would only decline to 124%.
“It is clear that the policy slippages and uncertainties of the last months have made the achievement of the 2012 targets impossible under any scenario,” one of six secret documents, titled the Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis for Greece, stated.
There are also mentions of much needed“significant concessions,” but no specifics are revealed.
The files were reportedly sent to all German MPs for review and approval, but were never voted on since Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras rejected the proposal and called for a referendum.
Other documents reveal further details about the proposed deal. For example, there is a description of how Greece would eventually gain access to €15 billion. The plan was to consist of five separate tranches beginning as soon as June. They were said to cover Greece’s immediate financing needs, with 93% of the money going towards paying the cost of maturing debt.
Other details were about reforms Greece should be forced to implement if it were to accept the proposal. The debate over pension reforms was particularly heated. The documents show that the three creditors wanted substantial reform, including changes to early retirement penalties and the phasing out the solidarity grant (EKAS).
Late on Tuesday evening, Greece became the first developed country to default on its international obligations, after the IMF confirmed that it had failed to receive the €1.5 billion debt payment from Athens that was due by the end of June 30.
Zerohedge explains that:
…all German MPs have received the documents, because a vote on them was supposed to take place, but none have said a thing about them. Good thing one at least was awake enough to send them to the press.
So they have these docs, and then yesterday Merkel says no more talks until after the referendum, and total silence follows. Boy, has she fallen from her pedestal. We know the Troika are composed of lackeys to the banking system -and this proves it once and for all-, but Merkel is worse. And she has the entire Bundestag wrapped around her finger. Some democracy, that Germany.
But the documents were also part of a package that was sent to Greece and everyone else. But still debt relief remained off the table? What am I missing here? How could Tsipras have signed off on this? He could see the Troika’s own numbers, and still they refused to take them into account and make them part of the deal?!
The Guardian gives the write up a half-ass title, but the contents are clear enough.