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Its now official, can has been kicked yet again…Greece’s Memorandum #3 is ready

Greece has reached another bailout deal but even with write downs, the outlook is grim. As Finnish Foreign Minister Timo Soini said over the weekend, “we should just admit that this isn’t going to work.”

Alex Christoforou

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While most of Greece in enjoying their annual August holidays on the islands, far away from Athens and the Quadriga (formally Troika) negotiations, Syriza has been a busy bee putting their ink to just about anything Greece’s creditors want, in an effort to kick the can just far enough down the street so as to not be “the party” that will eventually usher in the return of the drachma, and the collapse of the Greek banking system.

Via Zerohedge…

After what were described as “marathon” negotiations (although compared to the “mental waterboarding” he suffered in Brussels last month, this must have seemed like a walk in the park to PM Alexis Tsipras), Greece and its creditors have agreed to the terms of the country’s third bailout program. Here are the details, via Bloomberg:

  • Greece’s deal with creditors provides funding of ~EU85b over next 3 years ensuring ability to meet payment of debt obligations, Athens-based Press Ministry says in e-mailed statement.
  • Deal sees 2015 primary deficit of 0.25% of GDP, primary surpluses of 0.5% in 2016, 1.75% in 2017, 3.5% in 2018
  • Govt will take initiatives in coming months to settle issue of bad loans that stand at ~EU95b, consultation group on issue to be set up with creditors, govt won’t allow sale of bad loans
  • Greek power grid operator Admie to remain public asset, there will be no break up of Public Power Corp, natural gas market to be liberalized

Over the weekend, FAZ reported that creditors had drafted an MOU which would need to be discussed with the Greek finance ministry before it could be passed to EU member countries and the Greek parliament for final approval. Generally speaking, today was the deadline to produce a mutually “acceptable” draft agreement, as Athens must make a €3.2 billion bond payment to the ECB next week in order to ensure that the Greek banking sector retains access to ELA. Now, it looks like Europe will get to pay itself back after all, assuming there are no unexpected political problems later on in the week.

Reuters reports:

Greece and its international lenders clinched a multi-billion-euro bailout agreement on Tuesday after marathon talks through the night, officials said, raising hopes aid can be disbursed in time for a major debt repayment due next week.

After a 23-hour session that began Monday morning, exhausted Greek officials emerged in a central Athens hotel to announce the two sides had agreed on terms of the three-year agreement barring a couple of minor issues being ironed out.

“Finally, we have white smoke,” a finance ministry official said. “An agreement has been reached.”

Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos confirmed only “two or three small issues” were pending. Greek shares rose, with the banking index surging 6 percent, while two-year bond yields fell more than 4 percentage points.

Greek officials have said they expect the accord to be ratified by parliament on Wednesday or Thursday and then vetted by euro zone finance ministers on Friday. This would pave the way for aid disbursements by Aug. 20, when a 3.2 billion euro debt payment is due to the European Central Bank.

Although it certainly appears as though this is a done deal, the usual caveats apply, including the fact that Tsipras will be forced to once again beat back party infighting to pass the draft through the Greek parliament with the presumed backed of opposition lawmakers. As noted on Sunday, the Syriza rebellion which imperiled the first two votes on bailout prior actions will likely have died down in the wake of a dramatic party meeting late last month in which the Greek Premier insisted that for the time being, “opposing voices must stop.”

Once the bailout is official, Tsipras will convene an emergency Syriza party congress (likely in the first two weeks of September) – the meeting could be a prelude to snap elections.

Germany meanwhile, has pressed all sides to take their time and to avoid letting the ECB payment dictate the pace of negotiations. Whether or not Angela Merkel and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaueble will be satisfied that the proper diligence was exercised over the past two weeks or so remains to be seen. “One needs to look closely and then we’ll ask the Bundestag for approval when the common understanding is that this will hold for three years,” Schaeuble’s deputy Jens Spahn told ARD television on Tuesday. “It has to be convincing that it isn’t just about Aug. 20 and an installment payment, but really about how, together with the Greeks, we can have a lasting solution for Greece. Most of our colleagues agreed on July 17 that we wanted to speak to Greece and would give it another go in negotiations, and now we need a good result for them to be able to say that the result, the negotiations result is right. Privatization isn’t just about raising money, it’s about changing parts of the economy. Think about what the privatization of our federal post and federal railways meant for those industries in terms of competition and new opportunities”

The most immediate concern after the ECB payment will be “stabilizing” Greece’s woefully undercapitalized banks. Here’s more from Reuters:

During talks that dragged through Monday night, the sides reached agreement on the three main sticking points – dealing with non-performing loans held by banks, setting up an asset sales fund, and deregulation of the natural gas market.
Athens wanted to set up a “bad bank” to take on the problem loans, while creditors want them bundled and sold to distressed debt funds. It was not immediately clear how that was resolved.

Officials had also argued over how to set up a sovereign wealth fund in Greece designed to raise 50 billion euros from privatizations, three-quarters of which would be used to recapitalize banks and to reduce the debt.

Of course all of this assumes that the deal is viable in the first place which, as the IMF and the EU Commission have made clear, simply isn’t the case without some manner of debt relief or re-profiling for Athens, and even then, creditors seem profoundly unwilling to admit or even consider the fact that forcing the Greeks into a deep fiscal retrenchment in the midst of what amounts to a depression may be counterproductive to the point of absurdity. From ABN Amro (via Bloomberg):

Several potential pitfalls could knock Greece’s deal with its creditors off course in coming months, raising Grexit worries, ABN Amro analysts Aline Schuiling and Nick Kounis write in client note.

These include the weak economy, which makes for a very tough environment when implementing difficult measures, risk that austerity proves counter-productive, the need for debt relief and risk of a financing gap

Given Greece, Germany and the IMF have all expressed doubts about the program, it’s not clear how things will play out should the going get tough

And here’s BBC:

There will be few economists who believe that Greece will succeed in generating a surplus of 3.5% in 2018 and then sustaining that surplus for years – partly because it is rare for any Western economy to stay on a path of spending less than tax revenues for any length of time, let alone an economy with a private sector as feeble as Greece’s.
And I am sorry to say you will have heard this a few times from me, the really hard negotiations start soon – on how to reduce Greece’s massive debts, set to peak at close to 200% of GDP or national income in the next two years (according to the IMF) to an affordable level.

Without debt write-offs, prosperity will never return to Greece, and its future in the euro will never be assured.

With debt write-offs, populist parties throughout the eurozone will be able to claim to voters that they have nothing to fear and everything to gain from throwing out the mainstream establishment parties and re-asserting national sovereign rights to economic self-determination.

Or to put it another way, euro politics and euro economics of Greek debt forgiveness point in diametrically opposed directions.

Which is why no-one should see today’s important bailout agreement for Greece as a permanent happy ending.

So if you’re Pablo Iglesias you’re watching closely to see if Germany blinks in its staring contest with the IMF over writedowns for Greece – if they do, the door is open to demanding similar relief for Spain, which could prove to be a powerful campaign message going into elections due before the end of the year.

References:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-11/third-times-charm-greece-agrees-bailout-amid-rampant-skepticism

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Tape recorded evidence of Clinton-Ukraine meddling in US election surfaces (Video)

The Duran Quick Take: Episode 114.

Alex Christoforou

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RT CrossTalk host Peter Lavelle and The Duran’s Alex Christoforou take a look at new evidence to surface from Ukraine that exposes a plot by the US Embassy in Kiev and the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) to leak Paul Manafort’s corrupt dealings in the country, all for the benefit of Hillary Clinton during the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

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Via Zerohedge


Ukraine’s Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko has launched an investigation into the head of the Ukrainian National Anti-Corruption Bureau for allegedly attempting to help Hillary Clinton defeat Donald Trump during the 2016 US election by releasing damaging information about a “black ledger” of illegal business dealings by former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort.

The Hill’s John Solomon, Ukrainian Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko

“Today we will launch a criminal investigation about this and we will give legal assessment of this information,” Lutsenko said last week, according to The Hill

Lutsenko is probing a claim from a member of the Ukrainian parliament that the director of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU), Artem Sytnyk, attempted to the benefit of the 2016 U.S. presidential election on behalf of Hillary Clinton.

A State Department spokesman told Hill.TV that officials aware of news reports regarding Sytnyk. –The Hill

“According to the member of parliament of Ukraine, he got the court decision that the NABU official conducted an illegal intrusion into the American election campaign,” said Lutsenko, speaking with The Hill’s John Solomon about the anti-corruption bureau chief, Artem Sytnyk.

“It means that we think Mr. Sytnyk, the NABU director, officially talked about criminal investigation with Mr. [Paul] Manafort, and at the same time, Mr. Sytnyk stressed that in such a way, he wanted to assist the campaign of Ms. Clinton,” Lutsenko continued.

Solomon asked Lutsenko about reports that a member of Ukraine’s parliament obtained a tape of the current head of the NABU saying that he was attempting to help Clinton win the 2016 presidential election, as well as connections that helped release the black-ledger files that exposed Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort‘s wrongdoing in Ukraine.

“This member of parliament even attached the audio tape where several men, one of which had a voice similar to the voice of Mr. Sytnyk, discussed the matter.” –The Hill

What The Hill doesn’t mention is that Sytnyk released Manafort’s Black Book with Ukrainian lawmaker Serhiy Leshchenko – discussed in great length by former Breitbart investigator Lee Stranahan, who has been closely monitoring this case.

Serhiy Leshchenko

T]he main spokesman for these accusations was Serhiy Leshchenko, a Ukrainian politician and journalist who works closely with both top Hillary Clinton donors George Soros and Victor Pinchuk, as well as to the US Embassy in Kyiv.

James Comey should be asked about this source that Leshchenko would not identify. Was the source someone connected to US government, either the State Department or the Department of Justice?

The New York Times should also explain why they didn’t mention that Leshchenko had direct connections to two of Hillary Clinton biggest financial backers. Victor Pinchuk, the largest donor to the Clinton Foundation at a staggering $8.6 million also happened to have paid for Leshchenko’s expenses to go to international conferences. George Soros, whose also founded the International Renaissance Foundationthat worked closely with Hillary Clinton’s State Department in Ukraine, also contributed at least $8 million to Hillary affiliated super PACs in the 2016 campaign cycle. –Lee Stranahan via Medium

Meanwhile, according to former Fusion GPS contractor Nellie Ohr, Leshchenko was a source for opposition research firm Fusion GPS, which commissioned the infamous Trump-Russia dossier.

Nellie Ohr, a former contractor for the Washington, D.C.-based Fusion GPS, testified on Oct. 19 that Serhiy Leshchenko, a former investigative journalist turned Ukrainian lawmaker, was a source for Fusion GPS during the 2016 campaign.

“I recall … they were mentioning someone named Serhiy Leshchenko, a Ukrainian,” Ohr said when asked who Fusion GPS’s sources were, according to portions of Ohr’s testimony confirmed by The Daily Caller News Foundation. –Daily Caller

Also absent from The Hill report is the fact that Leshchenko was convicted in December by a Kiev court of interfering in the 2016 US election.

A Kyiv court said that a Ukrainian lawmaker and a top anticorruption official’s decision in 2016 to publish documents linked to President Donald Trump’s then-campaign chairman amounted to interference in the U.S. presidential election.

The December 11 finding came in response to a complaint filed by another Ukrainian lawmaker, who alleged that Serhiy Leshchenko and Artem Sytnyk illegally released the documents in August 2016, showing payments by a Ukrainian political party to Trump’s then-campaign chairman, Paul Manafort.

The documents, excerpts from a secret ledger of payments by the Party of Regions, led to Manafort being fired by Trump’s election campaign.

The Kyiv court said that the documents published by Leshchenko and Sytnyk were part of an ongoing pretrial investigation in Ukraine into the operations of the pro-Russian Party of Regions. The party’s head had been President Viktor Yanukovych until he fled the country amid mass protests two years earlier.

-RadioFreeEurope/Radio Liberty (funded by the US govt.).

So while Lutsenko – Solomon’s guest and Ukrainian Prosecutor is currently going after Artem Sytnyk, it should be noted that Leshchenko was already found to have meddled in the 2016 US election.

Watch:

Meanwhile, you can also check out Stranahan’s take on Leshchenko being left out of the loop.

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‘I will take over as Brexit Party leader’: Nigel Farage back on the frontline

Nigel Farage says that if the UK takes part in European elections, he will lead his new Brexit Party.

RT

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Via RT


Former UKIP leader Nigel Farage has announced that he will lead his new Brexit Party into the European elections if UK MPs decide to delay Brexit beyond May 22.

Farage, who has ostensibly appointed himself leader, told various media, including the BBC and Sky News on Friday morning: “I will take over as leader of the Brexit Party and lead it into the European Elections.”

It comes after the Brexit Party’s leader, Catherine Blaiklock, quit over a series of alleged Islamophobic statements and retweets of far-right figures on social media.

It is not yet thought that Farage has officially been elected as leader, as the party does not, as yet, have a formal infrastructure to conduct such a vote.

The right-wing MEP vowed to put out a whole host of Brexit Party candidates if the UK participates in the upcoming EU elections in May, adding: “If we fight those elections, we will fight them on trust.”

On Thursday night, the EU agreed to PM May’s request for a delaying to Brexit beyond the March 29 deadline. Brussels announced two new exit dates depending on what happens next week in the UK parliament.

The UK will have to leave the bloc on April 12 unless British MPs agree to May’s Brexit deal. If the withdrawal agreement is passed by next week, EU leaders have agreed to grant an extension until May 22.

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Baltics cannot rely on Germany any more

The matter is NATO today is not as strong as it is supposed to be. And it is not only because of leadership blunders.

The Duran

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Submitted by Adomas Abromaitis…

On March 29 Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia will celebrate 15 years of becoming NATO member states. The way to the alliance membership was not simple for newly born independent countries. They have reached great success in fulfilling many of NATO demands: they have considerably increased their defence expenditures, renewed armaments and increased the number of military personnel.

In turn, they get used to rely on more powerful member states, their advice, help and even decision making. All these 15 years they felt more or less safe because of proclaimed European NATO allies’ capabilities.

Unfortunately, now it is high time to doubt. The matter is NATO today is not as strong as it supposed to be. And it is not only because of leadership’s blunders. Every member state does a bit. As for the Baltic states, they are particularly vulnerable, because they fully depend on other NATO member states in their defence. Thus, Germany, Canada and Britain are leading nations of the NATO battle group stationed in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia respectively.

But the state of national armed forces in Germany, for example, raises doubts and makes it impossible not only defend the Baltics against Russia, but Germany itself.

It turned out, that Germany itself remains dissatisfied with its combat readiness and minister of defence’s ability to perform her duties. Things are so bad, that the military’s annual readiness report would be kept classified for the first time for “security reasons.”

“Apparently the readiness of the Bundeswehr is so bad that the public should not be allowed to know about it,” said Tobias Lindner, a Greens member who serves on the budget and defense committees.

Inspector General Eberhard Zorn said (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-arms/germany-not-satisfied-with-readiness-of-submarines-some-aircraft-idUSKBN1QS1G7) the average readiness of the country’s nearly 10,000 weapons systems stood at about 70 percent in 2018, which meant Germany was able to fulfill its military obligations despite increasing responsibilities.

No overall comparison figure was available for 2017, but last year’s report revealed readiness rates of under 50 percent for specific weapons such as the aging CH-53 heavy-lift helicopters and the Tornado fighter jets.

Zorn said this year’s report was more comprehensive and included details on five main weapons systems used by the cyber command, and eight arms critical for NATO’s high readiness task force, which Germany heads this year.

“The overall view allows such concrete conclusions about the current readiness of the Bundeswehr that knowledge by unauthorized individuals would harm the security interests of the Federal Republic of Germany,” he wrote.

Critics are sure of incompetence of the Federal Minister of Defence, Ursula von der Leyen. Though she has occupied the upper echelons of German politics for 14 years now — and shows no sign of success. This mother of seven, gynecologist by profession, by some miracle for a long time has been remaining in power, though has no trust even among German military elites. Despite numerous scandals she tries to manage the Armed Forces as a housewife does and, of course, the results are devastating for German military capabilities. The same statement could be easily apply for the Baltic States, which highly dependent on Germany in military sphere.

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