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Study in contrast: The West’s indifference to Mikheil Saakashvili; concern for Alexey Navalny

The West’s contrasting response: indifference when Saakashvili is stripped by Ukraine of his citizenship to prevent him standing in elections; sympathy for Navalny in Russia despite his fraud convictions.

Alexander Mercouris

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The former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili – on the run from the Georgian authorities on charges relating to his forcible dispersal of anti-government protest in Tbilisi in 2007 and his seizure of the Imedi television station and the other assets of the deceased Georgian oligarch Badri Patarkatsishvili – and stripped of his Ukrainian citizenship by a decree of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko dated 26th July 2017 – continues to thumb his nose at the Ukrainian authorities by travelling around eastern Europe on his now illegally retained Ukrainian passport.

Following a short trip to Poland latest reports place Saakashvili in Lithuania.

It seems that the authorities in Poland and Lithuania – two of the Ukrainian Maidan government’s staunchest allies in its conflict with Russia – are happy to side with Saakashvili against Ukraine, though they are almost alone amongst NATO/EU governments in doing so.

The Saakashvili affair underscores Poroshenko’s lack of political judgement.  It was Poroshenko who apparently decided to invite Saakashvili to Ukraine and to award him Ukrainian citizenship after Saakashvili had been ousted from his native Georgia and had been forced to leave his own country under a cloud.  It was also Poroshenko who in February 2015 appointed Saakashvili head of Ukraine’s International Advisory Council on Reform and who then in May 2015 promoted Saakasvhili to the key post of governor of Ukraine’s port city of Odessa.

In taking these steps Poroshenko may have been thumbing his nose at Russia – where Saakashvili is persona non grata because of his role in starting the 2008 South Ossetia war – whilst also putting in charge of Odessa a person unconnected to Ukraine’s various factions whom Poroshenko may have thought would therefore be exclusively loyal to himself.

In fact – as Poroshenko would have realised if he had followed Saakashvili’s career in Georgia at all closely – by inviting Saakashvili to Ukraine Poroshenko brought a cuckoo into Ukraine’s nest.

Saakashvili – a former President of Georgia and a compulsive self-publicist – was unsurprisingly unwilling to play second fiddle to Poroshenko – who he despises and obviously considers his moral and intellectual inferior – and quickly set himself up in opposition to Poroshenko and his government.

What must have been particularly infuriating to Poroshenko is that the issue Saakashvili chose upon which to build his opposition to Poroshenko is the perennial one in Ukraine of corruption.  Not only did Saakashvili present himself as the main opponent of corruption in Ukraine, but by December 2015 he was already setting up his own NGO “to fight corruption” in Ukraine, and there was even talk at about that time of Saakashvili setting up his own political party in Ukraine in a bid by Saakashvili to gain power on precisely that issue.

Here it is necessary to say that whilst corruption in the states that make up the former USSR is indeed an acute problem, the issue is regularly used especially by pro-Western politicians to discredit their opponents.  In Ukraine’s case political leaders like former President Yanukovych, current President Poroshenko, and former Prime Minister Tymoshenko, are especially vulnerable to attack on this issue because of the way corruption has long since become the organising principle of Ukrainian politics, making them all vulnerable to an attack based on it.

Few who have studied Saakashvili’s career at all closely would in fact consider him the right person to end corruption in Ukraine.  Certainly the present Georgian authorities do not think so.  The prevailing view in Georgia at the moment appears to be that though Saakashvili successfully ended the petty corruption which was endemic in Georgia before he became President, this was more than counter-balanced by the way he concentrated corruption around himself and his closest associates.

In any event, and completely unsurprisingly, in view of Saakashvili’s grossly insubordinate behaviour it did not take long before Poroshenko acted to bring Saakashvili’s political activities in Ukraine to a stop.  In November 2016 Saakashvili was to resign as Odessa’s governor and from his post as Poroshenko’s adviser.

In a sign of how bad relations between Poroshenko and Saakashvili had become, Saakashvili then immediately followed this up by staging an inflammatory news conference in which he claimed that Poroshenko personally supported the “corrupt clans in the Odessa region” and that the “Odessa region is being handed over not only to corrupt people, but also to enemies of Ukraine”.

Saakashvili has remained a thorn in Poroshenko’s side ever since.  This February he finally got round to setting up his political party to fight Poroshenko on an anti-corruption platform, giving it the portentous title “Movement of New Forces”.

This party successfully gained registration from the Ukraine’s Interior Ministry and has appeared to gain some traction with the Ukrainian public, with two smaller parties recently merging with it and with nine Ukrainian mayors reportedly joining it.  In April 2017 an opinion poll actually gave Saakashvili a higher rating that Poroshenko himself.  With talk of early parliamentary elections in Ukraine increasing, and with signs that Saakashvili was starting to win support, Poroshenko acted by stripping Saakashvili of his Ukrainian citizenship.

That effectively ends Saakashvili’s hopes of making an impact in Ukrainian politics since Ukrainian law prohibits anyone but a Ukrainian citizen from holding public office in Ukraine.

I hold no brief for Mikheil Saakashvili.  I consider him a disruptive and self-interested figure who alienated Georgia against its national interests from Russia, and who led Georgia into the 2008 South Ossetia with Russia which it disastrously and predictably lost.

Saakashvili was also in my opinion – and in the opinion of many other people, including most Georgians – an autocratic and arbitrary ruler of Georgia in the time that he was its President.

I would add that I do not personally buy the claims that Saakashvili engineered an economic miracle in Georgia – people I have spoken to who know Georgia well, including some Georgians, strongly dispute this claim – and as I have already said I think the success of his anti-corruption campaign is grossly overstated.

However it remains the case that Poroshenko’s stripping Saakashvili of his citizenship in order to eliminate someone who had become a political rival is nothing short of outrageous.

It is also shocking that no one in the West seems to be at all concerned about it.

Here the contrast with the case of Alexey Navalny is instructive.

In the West the fact that Navalny has been repeatedly convicted in Russia on fraud charges – in the Kirovles case in my opinion justly – is invariably reported as something which was done to prevent him standing against Putin in the 2018 Presidential election.

This is despite the fact that every survey of Russian opinion that I know of shows that Navalny has no hope of winning against Putin in any election, even if despite his convictions he is allowed to stand in them.

Saakashvili by contrast has not been charged with committing any crime in Ukraine, and the pretext under which his citizenship has been taken away – that he did not disclose the charges the Georgian authorities are bringing against him when he was granted his Ukrainian citizenship – is so threadbare as to insult the intelligence.

Moreover whilst Navalny is no conceivable rival to Putin – whose popularity in Russia remains immense – Saakashvili has emerged as a potentially serious challenger to Poroshenko, even though I cannot imagine in any conceivable scenario Saakashvili ever becoming Ukraine’s President or winning an election there.

Saakashvili moreover – even more than Navalny – is someone who continues to be spoken of in the West as a hero because of the way that as President of Georgia he supposedly stood up to Putin and Russia.

Nonetheless when a shabby trick is used to eliminate Saakashvili from Ukraine’s political scene the response from the West is a deafening silence.

This at the same time that the West continues to criticise the Russian authorities’ far more lenient (in my opinion excessively lenient) treatment of Navalny, though it’s worth adding that the Financial Times’s latest article about Navalny suggests growing doubts in the West about him.

However it seems that supporting Ukraine’s Maidan regime and its shabby President trumps all other considerations, so that even when one of the West’s own anti-Russian heroes is treated in Ukraine in a crude and oppressive way a blind eye is turned to it.

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Airline wars heat up, as industry undergoes massive disruption (Video)

The Duran Quick Take: Episode 145.

Alex Christoforou

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The Duran’s Alex Christoforou and Editor-in-Chief Alexander Mercouris examine the global commercial airline industry, which is undergoing massive changes, as competition creeps in from Russia and China.

Reuters reports that Boeing Co’s legal troubles grew as a new lawsuit accused the company of defrauding shareholders by concealing safety deficiencies in its 737 MAX planes before two fatal crashes led to their worldwide grounding.

The proposed class action filed in Chicago federal court seeks damages for alleged securities fraud violations, after Boeing’s market value tumbled by $34 billion within two weeks of the March 10 crash of an Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX.

*****

According to the complaint, Boeing “effectively put profitability and growth ahead of airplane safety and honesty” by rushing the 737 MAX to market to compete with Airbus SE, while leaving out “extra” or “optional” features designed to prevent the Ethiopian Airlines and Lion Air crashes.

It also said Boeing’s statements about its growth prospects and the 737 MAX were undermined by its alleged conflict of interest from retaining broad authority from federal regulators to assess the plane’s safety.

*****

Boeing said on Tuesday that aircraft orders in the first quarter fell to 95 from 180 a year earlier, with no orders for the 737 MAX following the worldwide grounding.

On April 5, it said it planned to cut monthly 737 production to 42 planes from 52, and was making progress on a 737 MAX software update to prevent further accidents.

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Via Zerohedge…

Step aside (fading) trade war with China: there is a new aggressor – at least according to the US Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer – in town.

In a statement on the USTR’s website published late on Monday, the US fair trade agency announced that under Section 301 of the Trade Act, it was proposing a list of EU products to be covered by additional duties. And as justification for the incremental import taxes, the USTR said that it was in response to EU aircraft subsidies, specifically to Europea’s aerospace giant, Airbus, which “have caused adverse effects to the United States” and which the USTR estimates cause $11 billion in harm to the US each year

One can’t help but notice that the latest shot across the bow in the simmering trade war with Europe comes as i) Trump is reportedly preparing to fold in his trade war with China, punting enforcement to whoever is president in 2025, and ii) comes just as Boeing has found itself scrambling to preserve orders as the world has put its orderbook for Boeing 737 MAX airplanes on hold, which prompted Boeing to cut 737 production by 20% on Friday.

While the first may be purely a coincidence, the second – which is expected to not only slam Boeing’s financials for Q1 and Q2, but may also adversely impact US GDP – had at least some impact on the decision to proceed with these tariffs at this moment.

We now await Europe’s angry response to what is Trump’s latest salvo in what is once again a global trade war. And, paradoxically, we also expect this news to send stocks blasting higher as, taking a page from the US-China trade book, every day algos will price in imminent “US-European trade deal optimism.”

Below the full statement from the USTR (link):

USTR Proposes Products for Tariff Countermeasures in Response to Harm Caused by EU Aircraft Subsidies

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has found repeatedly that European Union (EU) subsidies to Airbus have caused adverse effects to the United States.  Today, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) begins its process under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to identify products of the EU to which additional duties may be applied until the EU removes those subsidies.

USTR is releasing for public comment a preliminary list of EU products to be covered by additional duties.  USTR estimates the harm from the EU subsidies as $11 billion in trade each year.  The amount is subject to an arbitration at the WTO, the result of which is expected to be issued this summer.

“This case has been in litigation for 14 years, and the time has come for action. The Administration is preparing to respond immediately when the WTO issues its finding on the value of U.S. countermeasures,” said U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.  “Our ultimate goal is to reach an agreement with the EU to end all WTO-inconsistent subsidies to large civil aircraft.  When the EU ends these harmful subsidies, the additional U.S. duties imposed in response can be lifted.”

In line with U.S. law, the preliminary list contains a number of products in the civil aviation sector, including Airbus aircraft.  Once the WTO arbitrator issues its report on the value of countermeasures, USTR will announce a final product list covering a level of trade commensurate with the adverse effects determined to exist.

Background

After many years of seeking unsuccessfully to convince the EU and four of its member States (France, Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom) to cease their subsidization of Airbus, the United States brought a WTO challenge to EU subsidies in 2004. In 2011, the WTO found that the EU provided Airbus $18 billion in subsidized financing from 1968 to 2006.  In particular, the WTO found that European “launch aid” subsidies were instrumental in permitting Airbus to launch every model of its large civil aircraft, causing Boeing to lose sales of more than 300 aircraft and market share throughout the world.

In response, the EU removed two minor subsidies, but left most of them unchanged.  The EU also granted Airbus more than $5 billion in new subsidized “launch aid” financing for the A350 XWB.  The United States requested establishment of a compliance panel in March 2012 to address the EU’s failure to remove its old subsidies, as well as the new subsidies and their adverse effects.  That process came to a close with the issuance of an appellate report in May 2018 finding that EU subsidies to high-value, twin-aisle aircraft have caused serious prejudice to U.S. interests.  The report found that billions of dollars in launch aid to the A350 XWB and A380 cause significant lost sales to Boeing 787 and 747 aircraft, as well as lost market share for Boeing very large aircraft in the EU, Australia, China, Korea, Singapore, and UAE markets.

Based on the appellate report, the United States requested authority to impose countermeasures worth $11.2 billion per year, commensurate with the adverse effects caused by EU subsidies.  The EU challenged that estimate, and a WTO arbitrator is currently evaluating those claims

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Mueller report takes ‘Russian meddling’ for granted, offers no actual evidence

RT

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Via RT…


Special counsel Robert Mueller’s ‘Russiagate’ report has cleared Donald Trump of ‘collusion’ charges but maintains that Russia meddled in the 2016 US presidential election. Yet concrete evidence of that is nowhere to be seen.

The report by Mueller and his team, made public on Thursday by the US Department of Justice, exonerates not just Trump but all Americans of any “collusion” with Russia, “obliterating” the Russiagate conspiracy theory, as journalist Glenn Greenwald put it.

However, it asserts that Russian “interference” in the election did happen, and says it consisted of a campaign on social media as well as Russian military intelligence (repeatedly referred to by its old, Soviet-era name, GRU) “hacking” the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the DNC, and the private email account of Hillary Clinton’s campaign chair, John Podesta.

As evidence of this, the report basically offers nothing but Mueller’s indictment of “GRU agents,” delivered on the eve of the Helsinki Summit between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in what was surely a cosmic coincidence.

Indictments are not evidence, however, but allegations. Any time it looks like the report might be bringing up proof, it ends up being redacted, ostensibly to protect sources and methods, and out of concern it might cause “harm to an ongoing matter.”

‘Active measures’ on social media

Mueller’s report leads with the claim that the Internet Research Agency (IRA) ran an “active measures” campaign of social media influence. Citing Facebook and Twitter estimates, the report says this consisted of 470 Facebook accounts that made 80,000 posts that may have been seen by up to 126 million people, between January 2015 and August 2017 (almost a year after the election), and 3,814 Twitter accounts that “may have been” in contact with about 1.4 million people.

Those numbers may seem substantial but, as investigative journalist Gareth Porter pointed out in November 2018, they should be regarded against the background of 33 trillion Facebook posts made during the same period.

According to Mueller, the IRA mind-controlled the American electorate by spending “approximately $100,000” on Facebook ads, hiring someone to walk around New York City “dressed up as Santa Claus with a Trump mask,” and getting Trump campaign affiliates to promote “dozens of tweets, posts, and other political content created by the IRA.” Dozens!

Meanwhile, the key evidence against IRA’s alleged boss Evgeny Prigozhin is that he “appeared together in public photographs” with Putin.

Alleged hacking & release

The report claims that the GRU hacked their way into 29 DCCC computers and another 30 DNC computers, and downloaded data using software called “X-Tunnel.” It is unclear how Mueller’s investigators claim to know this, as the report makes no mention of them or FBI actually examining DNC or DCCC computers. Presumably they took the word of CrowdStrike, the Democrats’ private contractor, for it.

However obtained, the documents were published first through DCLeaks and Guccifer 2.0 – which the report claims are “fictitious online personas” created by the GRU – and later through WikiLeaks. What is Mueller’s proof that these two entities were “GRU” cutouts? In a word, this:

That the Guccifer 2.0 persona provided reporters access to a restricted portion of the DCLeaks website tends to indicate that both personas were operated by the same or a closely-related group of people.(p. 43)

However, the report acknowledges that the “first known contact” between Guccifer 2.0 and WikiLeaks was on September 15, 2016 – months after the DNC and DCCC documents were published! Here we do get actual evidence: direct messages on Twitter obtained by investigators. Behold, these “spies” are so good, they don’t even talk – and when they do, they use unsecured channels.

Mueller notably claims “it is clear that the stolen DNC and Podesta documents were transferred from the GRU to WikiLeaks” (the rest of that sentence is redacted), but the report clearly implies the investigators do not actually know how. On page 47, the report says Mueller “cannot rule out that stolen documents were transferred to WikiLeaks through intermediaries who visited during the summer of 2016.”

Strangely, the report accuses WikiLeaks co-founder Julian Assange of making “public statements apparently designed to obscure the source” of the materials (p.48), notably the offer of a reward for finding the murderer of DNC staffer Seth Rich – even though this can be read as corroborating the intermediaries theory, and Assange never actually said Rich was his source.

The rest of Mueller’s report goes on to discuss the Trump campaign’s contacts with anyone even remotely Russian and to create torturous constructions that the president had “obstructed” justice by basically defending himself from charges of being a Russian agent – neither of which resulted in any indictments, however. But the central premise that the 22-month investigation, breathless media coverage, and the 448-page report are based on – that Russia somehow meddled in the 2016 election – remains unproven.

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Rumors of War: Washington Is Looking for a Fight

The bill stands up for NATO and prevents the President from pulling the US out of the Alliance without a Senate vote.

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Authored by Philip Giraldi via The Strategic Culture Foundation:


It is depressing to observe how the United States of America has become the evil empire. Having served in the United States Army during the Vietnam War and in the Central Intelligence Agency for the second half of the Cold War, I had an insider’s viewpoint of how an essentially pragmatic national security policy was being transformed bit by bit into a bipartisan doctrine that featured as a sine qua non global dominance for Washington. Unfortunately, when the Soviet Union collapsed the opportunity to end once and for all the bipolar nuclear confrontation that threatened global annihilation was squandered as President Bill Clinton chose instead to humiliate and use NATO to contain an already demoralized and effectively leaderless Russia.

American Exceptionalism became the battle cry for an increasingly clueless federal government as well as for a media-deluded public. When 9/11 arrived, the country was ready to lash out at the rest of the world. President George W. Bush growled that “There’s a new sheriff in town and you are either with us or against us.” Afghanistan followed, then Iraq, and, in a spirit of bipartisanship, the Democrats came up with Libya and the first serious engagement in Syria. In its current manifestation, one finds a United States that threatens Iran on a nearly weekly basis and tears up arms control agreements with Russia while also maintaining deployments of US forces in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia and places like Mali. Scattered across the globe are 800 American military bases while Washington’s principal enemies du jour Russia and China have, respectively, only one and none.

Never before in my lifetime has the United States been so belligerent, and that in spite of the fact that there is no single enemy or combination of enemies that actually threaten either the geographical United States or a vital interest. Venezuela is being threatened with invasion primarily because it is in the western hemisphere and therefore subject to Washington’s claimed proconsular authority. Last Wednesday Vice President Mike Pence told the United Nations Security Council that the White House will remove Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power, preferably using diplomacy and sanctions, but “all options are on the table.” Pence warned that Russia and other friends of Maduro need to leave now or face the consequences.

The development of the United States as a hostile and somewhat unpredictable force has not gone unnoticed. Russia has accepted that war is coming no matter what it does in dealing with Trump and is upgrading its forces. By some estimates, its army is better equipped and more combat ready than is that of the United States, which spends nearly ten times as much on “defense.”

Iran is also upgrading its defensive capabilities, which are formidable. Now that Washington has withdrawn from the nuclear agreement with Iran, has placed a series of increasingly punitive sanctions on the country, and, most recently, has declared a part of the Iranian military to be a “foreign terrorist organization” and therefore subject to attack by US forces at any time, it is clear that war will be the next step. In three weeks, the United States will seek to enforce a global ban on any purchases of Iranian oil. A number of countries, including US nominal ally Turkey, have said they will ignore the ban and it will be interesting to see what the US Navy intends to do to enforce it. Or what Iran will do to break the blockade.

But even given all of the horrific decisions being made in the White House, there is one organization that is far crazier and possibly even more dangerous. That is the United States Congress, which is, not surprisingly, a legislative body that is viewed positively by only 18 per cent of the American people.

A current bill originally entitled the “Defending American Security from Kremlin Aggression Act (DASKA) of 2019,” is numbered S-1189. It has been introduced in the Senate which will “…require the Secretary of State to determine whether the Russian Federation should be designated as a state sponsor of terrorism and whether Russian-sponsored armed entities in Ukraine should be designated as foreign terrorist organizations.” The bill is sponsored by Republican Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado and is co-sponsored by Democrat Robert Menendez of New Jersey.

The current version of the bill was introduced on April 11th and it is by no means clear what kind of support it might actually have, but the fact that it actually has surfaced at all should be disturbing to anyone who believes it is in the world’s best interest to avoid direct military confrontation between the United States and Russia.

In a a press release by Gardner, who has long been pushing to have Russia listed as a state sponsor of terrorism, a February version of the bill is described as “…comprehensive legislation [that] seeks to increase economic, political, and diplomatic pressure on the Russian Federation in response to Russia’s interference in democratic processes abroad, malign influence in Syria, and aggression against Ukraine, including in the Kerch Strait. The legislation establishes a comprehensive policy response to better position the US government to address Kremlin aggression by creating new policy offices on cyber defenses and sanctions coordination. The bill stands up for NATO and prevents the President from pulling the US out of the Alliance without a Senate vote. It also increases sanctions pressure on Moscow for its interference in democratic processes abroad and continued aggression against Ukraine.”

The February version of the bill included Menendez, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Democrat Ben Cardin of Maryland and Republican Lindsey Graham of South Carolina as co-sponsors, suggesting that provoking war is truly bipartisan in today’s Washington.

Each Senator co-sponsor contributed a personal comment to the press release. Gardner observed that “Putin’s Russia is an outlaw regime that is hell-bent on undermining international law and destroying the US-led liberal global order.” Menendez noted that “President Trump’s willful paralysis in the face of Kremlin aggression has reached a boiling point in Congress” while Graham added that “Our goal is to change the status quo and impose meaningful sanctions and measures against Putin’s Russia. He should cease and desist meddling in the US electoral process, halt cyberattacks on American infrastructure, remove Russia from Ukraine, and stop efforts to create chaos in Syria.” Cardin contributed “Congress continues to take the lead in defending US national security against continuing Russian aggression against democratic institutions at home and abroad” and Shaheen observed that “This legislation builds on previous efforts in Congress to hold Russia accountable for its bellicose behavior against the United States and its determination to destabilize our global world order.”

The Senatorial commentary is, of course, greatly exaggerated and sometimes completely false regarding what is going on in the world, but it is revealing of how ignorant American legislators can be and often are. The Senators also ignore the fact that the designation of presumed Kremlin surrogate forces as “foreign terrorist organizations” is equivalent to a declaration of war against them by the US military, while hypocritically calling Russia a state sponsor of terrorism is bad enough, as it is demonstrably untrue. But the real damage comes from the existence of the bill itself. It will solidify support for hardliners on both sides, guaranteeing that there will be no rapprochement between Washington and Moscow for the foreseeable future, a development that is bad for everyone involved. Whether it can be characterized as an unintended consequence of unwise decision making or perhaps something more sinister involving a deeply corrupted congress and administration remains to be determined.

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