Is it too early for Russia to rejoice over President Trump?

For the eastern bloc of the world Donald Trump promises less conflict with his positive statements towards Russia. But how much of that positive rhetoric can actually be put into action?

When Obama got elected for his first term, there was hope; he said he was going to withdraw troops from the wars in the Middle East, close the Guantanamo Bay prison and more.

He actually had so much peace and positivity during the campaign that only 11 days after taking office the Nobel Prize Committee announced Obama as the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize.

But the withdrawal from Afghanistan never took place and even after 8 years in power Obama sill hasn’t shut the doors of the Guantanamo Bay prison, against his own will – as many believe.

It has always been debatable how deeply a US President can shape international policies. As is known institutions like the CIA and the Pentagon have long term plans, independent of the presidents. 

In his interview to The Wall Street Journal after winning the election, Donald Trump stated that he is likely to end the support for the rebels fighting the Syrian government, making it clear that he sees no profit in it for the US.

However as is known war is a profitable business for those few at the top.

There is a widespread belief that unlike Hillary Clinton Donald Trump has no connection to the military industrial establishment and that its warmongers can’t direct him.

However, it it is unlikely that those who have invested so heavily in the Syrian conflict are going to to let go so easily just because Trump is in the White House.

Former President Jimmy Carter stated in January 2016 that he would pick Trump over Ted Cruz, because Trump is so malleable.

If a former President of the United States thinks Trump is malleable, then there have to be others who are of the same opinion. Either willingly or through the pressure of events or circumstances, Trump might change his positive view of working with Russia.

Trump has spoken in a much more positive way about Russia than did Hillary Clinton.  However it shouldn’t be forgotten that Trump is also on record as saying that the US might have to shoot down Russian warplanes approaching US military assets when Russian warplanes overfly US warships in international airspace close to the Russian border.

For the Russian side Trump promises a lot. He might play a role to end the two sided conflict in Syria, sanctions against Russia, tensions with NATO, and the Ukrainian conflict.

However, there are too many sides to Trump and too many powerful people opposed to such a rapprochement to make that a foregone conclusion.