As the fascist forces of the Kiev junta become increasingly desperate, they are resorting to assassination upon assassination of commanders from the Donetsk and Lugansk republics.
Days ago Lugansk Colonel Oleg Anashchenko had his car blown up and today it is Donetsk Lieutenant Colonel Mikhail Tolstykh, affectionately known by his call sign Givi.
Givi was blown up in his office, the victim of yet another ISIS-style assassination. Unable to win the war on the battlefield, in spite of increased violence, the fascist forces are showing signs of desperation, a desperation which is costing lives.
At this point, it becomes necessary to discuss the various options on the table for the Donbass republics, their allies and their enemies.
–Stay the course
The Donbass republics have had consistent military victories in the event of almost every fascist onslaught. The Donbass freedom fighters are fighting for their own homes, their families and their way of life. This has helped keep morale high, vis-à-vis an impoverished and demoralized Ukrainian side who are quick to desert in the face of actual confrontation. This is the reason that the Kiev junta has had to rely on so many irregulars including mercenaries and terrorists. Even then the command structure on the fascist side is generally poor, having little knowledge of good military tactics.
This is the reason that the Kiev junta has had to rely on so many irregulars including mercenaries and terrorists. Even then the command structure on the fascist side is generally poor, having little knowledge of good military tactics.
Although the Donbass republics have not received any military aid from a foreign power, unlike Kiev who has received supplies and money from NATO countries, the military equipment of the Donbass republics continues to improve and the ability of the world-class machinists of the region makes repairing and building weapons far more reliable than it otherwise would be.
If this strategy of the Donbass republics ‘going it alone’ continues, there is a chance that whilst the republics are not powerful enough to launch major counter-offensives into fascist held territory, that they will be able to continue to defend their territory and eventually wear down and bankrupt the fascist forces.
The problem with this strategy is that so long as the fascists have enough power to continue assaults on Donbass, innocent people will die in one way or another. This situation, which was never acceptable, is becoming increasingly frightening.
If Russia decided that enough is enough and that it was time to send in the military, the war itself would be over, virtually before it began. The fascist forces cannot beat volunteers from Donbass, therefore there is no conceivable chance that they could hold any ground against one of the world’s best armies.
Russia could not only secure Donbass in this way, but could also technically liberate other fascist held areas which are historically Russian and have Russian populations who would welcome Russian forces. This includes areas like Kharkov, Odessa, Mariupol and Dnepropetrovsk.
One must not forget when a combination of Nazi Right Sector fighters and professional football hooligans slaughtered young men and women in Odessa in May of 2014. This has not been forgotten. Tensions do indeed burn outside of Donetsk and Lugansk, a fact which remains grossly underreported.
The problem with this strategy is the unknown element of the wider NATO reaction. Right now the fascist regime’s best defense is the threat that Russian intervention in Donbass would create a NATO backlash. However, with Donald Trump in power, it is not clear how a US-led response would look.
Unlike Obama, Donald Trump does not seem to care a great deal about Kiev. Furthermore, he seems to think of Eastern Europe in the way that Benjamin Disraeli once described Britain’s empire, ‘a millstone round our necks’.
The Trump administration seems far more concerned with Iran and China than with Donbass or Syria.
Some still think that Poroshenko and co could rally NATO into a full-on war with Russia, should Russia intervene in Donbass. Even under Obama, I believe such a scenario was unlikely. Risking a world-war over a gang of out of control fascists who offer nothing to the world, including to America in the long term, strikes one as fanciful. Under Trump this is all the more true.
However, Russia still is playing the cautious card in this. Many in Moscow will surely be hoping for Donbass to stay the course and the rest of the cobbled together state of Ukraine to eventually fall apart under its own weight.
–A Brokered Accord
Whilst the Minsk II agreement was dead on arrival and continues to be violated on a virtually hourly basis by the fascists forces, there is a chance now that America may be ruled by a more realistic administration, to have a meaningful, internationally brokered ceasefire.
This wold almost certainly require some sort of caretaker government in Kiev led by various compromise candidates. However, it is not clear that the fascists in control would vacate so easily. In spite of not being able to survive economically without foreign aid, nevertheless, they are something of a law unto themselves.
Such an accord would need to be backed up by the full weight of both Russia and America. I’m not sure if such a will exists, especially from the American side.
Because of all this, the most likely scenario is that things will continue as they are. Ultimately the Donbass republics will win for the same reason North Vietnam vanquished the American forces and Algeria expelled the French imperialists. The fact that unlike in The Vietnam War and the Algerian struggle for independence, the Donbass fighters are generally better than their fascist opponents, makes the prospect of an ultimate victory in the long term, even more assured.
The people of Donbass are fighting for their land against what amounts to a foreign foe. The sad fact is that Russia’s absence from the battlefield is costing lives. However, there is still a chance that in the long term lives are being saved, if and this is a big if, Russian involvement would provoke the war with NATO that the fascists long for.
All that remains to be said is RIP Givi, a patriotic hero whose bravery has helped the Donbass republics in their fight for freedom.