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5 reasons Japan’s Shinzo Abe needs his meeting with Donald Trump to go well

With Japan rocked by scandals that have prompted speculation he will be out of office in a matter of months, Japan’s Prime Minister and US lapdog, Shinzo Abe, will meet with Donald Trump in the US this week to try and salvage his declining reputation.

Vladimir Rodzianko

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With a historic summit between the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, and the South Korean president Moon Jae-in, less than two weeks away, followed by a possible summit between Kim and Donald Trump – Japan has found itself left out of diplomatic circles amid scandals at home.

Abe’s popularity among Japanese hit an all-time low after two allegations of cronyism connected to the PM surfaced, including a discounted sale of public land that had links to his wife.

The Guardian reported:

Abe has been badly bruised by allegations of cronyism centering on the heavily discounted sale of public land to the operator of an ultra-nationalist kindergarten in Osaka with links to his wife, Akie Abe.

He has consistently denied any wrongdoing, and said he would resign if he or his wife were shown to have been intervened in the sale of the land.

The finance ministry recently admitted to tampering with documents to remove references to Abe and his wife in papers relating to the decision to provide an 85% discount on the appraised value of the land.

He is also alleged to have used his influence to help a friend secure permission to open a veterinary school – claims he has rejected. Last week, however, an official document emerged describing the veterinary school as “an issue that involves the prime minister”.

Here are 5 reasons Shinzo Abe prays his meeting with Donald Trump goes well, via Ian Bremmer at Time:

1. Abe is facing trouble at home

Just six months ago Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) were riding high, having secured a 2/3 supermajority in snap elections for the lower house of the Diet, Japan’s national parliament. It was a decisive victory, boosting Abe’s confidence in his ability to push ahead in his quest to rewrite Japan’s “pacifist” constitution.

In the run-up to those elections, Abe’s popularity was above 50 percent, and pundits were bullish on the prospect of him winning a third term as president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and becoming Japan’s longest-serving prime minister in the post-war era (he’s currently third).

Today, his popularity has plummeted to below 30 percent according to one recent poll (lower than Trump’s current 39 percent). Much of that has to do with the Moritomo scandal, which involves allegations that a rightwing activist close to Abe and his wife secured a suspiciously good land deal from the government to establish an elementary school.

While the scandal has been plastered across Japanese headlines since early 2017 — and the Abes deny any wrongdoing — recent reports that Japan’s Finance Ministry doctored documents related to the deal to remove references to Abe, his wife Akie, and other political figures have breathed new life into accusations of impropriety and sparked a broader effort to dig up more examples of government misdoings.

Almost half (48 percent) of Japanese voters believe Abe should resign over the scandal; just this weekend, thousands took to the streets in Tokyo to demand his ouster. There are countries where protests like this happen once a week; Japan isn’t one of them.

2. Abe wants a seat at the table for North Korea talks

All these issues are coming to a head as Abe is preparing to run for reelection in the LDP’s presidential contest this September and serve another 3-year term. But it’s not just domestic politics that Abe needs to be worried about. Abe was caught completely off guard by Trump’s impromptu decision to accept North Korean Leader Kim Jong-Un’s invitation to a summit later this spring.

Along with South Korea’s previous administration, Abe had held a tough-line on sanctioning and isolating the Kim regime. Now South Korea is headed by Moon Jae-In, a progressive politician who advocates peaceful engagement with North Korea, and the U.S. is being led by the mercurial Trump.

Japan is understandably concerned about being marginalized from, or even left out of, negotiations—it wants to make sure that if, for example, North Korea agrees to destroy the ICBMs that can hit the U.S. mainland, it will also destroy the short and medium-range ballistic missiles that can hit Japan, too.

A nuclear North Korea remains a non-starter for Japan, as it is for the U.S.—expect Abe to reaffirm his firm support for the U.S. “maximum pressure” strategy during discussions with Trump this week, and for Trump to agree wholeheartedly that keeping tough sanctions in place is critical to efforts to persuade Kim to abandon his nuclear ambitions.

3. Trump’s aggressive trade tariffs

North Korea is actually expected to be the easy part of the Trump-Abe summit. Much more contentious will be the trade talk—it hasn’t escaped Abe’s notice (nor that of his detractors in Japan) that his supposedly warm relationship with Trump failed to secure his country’s exemption from Trump’s Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs, which the US will likely impose next month. Japan is responsible for nearly 5 percent of all steel imported into the U.S., or roughly 1.9 million tons.

It’s no secret that Trump prefers bilateral trade deals to multilateral ones; Trump argues that the U.S. can exert more leverage on governments by confronting them one-on-one. So we can expect Trump to lean on Abe to begin negotiations for a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA), likely by tying them to the lifting of steel and aluminum sanctions.

Abe will try to avoid promising anything specific on that front, knowing that Trump will seek to extract more concessions from Japan than it already agreed to give in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement.

But Abe is not in a position to refuse Trump outright given Japan’s need to keep the economic and security relationship on an even keel. Abe will likely try to give Trump just enough to allow the U.S. president to declare that Japan has committed to a better deal for the U.S., but not so much that Abe looks like has caved into Trump’s demands.

That rather tortured compromise will probably come in the form of pledges to work harder to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and to allow U.S. firms more unfettered access to the Japanese market.

4. The possibility of the U.S. joining the Pacific region’s big trade pact

Instead of agreeing to near-term bilateral FTA talks, Abe will try to steer Trump back towards TPP, which was intended both to promote international commerce and to hem in China’s economic, political, and security ambitions in Asia.

Abe spent enormous political capital selling the Japanese public on the need for the 12-country trade deal when it was still being negotiated under Obama, but Trump withdrew the U.S. from TPP talks just three days into his presidency, fulfilling a key campaign promise. The rest of the signatories forged ahead and signed a revised agreement last month now colloquially referred to as TPP-11; this new trade deal dropped the U.S.-backed provisions on intellectual property and investor-state dispute settlements, among others.

Getting the U.S. under Trump to join TPP was always going to be a longshot. But those prospects received an unexpected boost late last week when Trump tweeted that he was open to looking again at TPP now that a possible trade war with China looms—albeit with the caveat that only “if the deal were substantially better than the deal offered to Pres. Obama.”

Given that the Obama team engaged in arduous negotiations for years to extract U.S.-friendly concessions, it seems unlikely the signatories would capitulate just because Trump tweeted his openness to joining; indeed, many of the TPP-11 countries were notably cool to the prospect, especially if that would require reopening and renegotiating the original TPP text.

Japan, however, is more open to the idea of helping create a pathway for the U.S. to join TPP — and even if it never comes to pass, Abe will express to Trump his government’s willingness to support him on this front.

5. The delicate art of golf diplomacy

The reality is that there are some unprecedentedly complex issues on the summit agenda this week, and the political troubles that both Abe and Trump are facing at home will make significant concessions tough for either to offer. But Abe arrives this week knowing that he must try his best to give Trump enough for him to declare (tweet?) the summit a success; it remains to be seen what Trump is willing to give Abe in return.

But make no mistake: now that Beijing is in Trump’s crosshairs (and vice versa), the Abe-Trump relationship is more important than ever. How important? Reports last week that Trump’s advance team hadn’t extended a formal invitation to Abe for a round of golf threw Tokyo into a tizzy. Thankfully, golf this week has been confirmed.

And if Abe can charmingly ingratiate himself to Trump as he did during their last outing on the links, so much the better for Japan—and the U.S., too.

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Beijing Threatens “Severe” Retaliation Against Canada If Huawei CFO Is Not Released

China’s warning marks an escalation in Beijing’s rhetoric as investors worry that the arrest could cause the shaky trade detente between the US and China to devolve into acrimony.

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Via Zerohedge


Canada’s extraordinary arrest one week ago of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou, the daughter of Huawei founder and billionaire executive Ren Zhengfei, and its decision to charge her with “multiple” counts of fraud – a preamble to her likely extradition to the US to face charges of knowingly violating US and EU sanctions on Iran – has elicited widespread anger in Beijing, which declared Meng’s detention a “violation of human rights” during a bail hearing for the jailed executive on Friday.

That anger has apparently only intensified after the hearing adjourned without a decision (it will resume on Monday, allowing Meng’s defense team to argue for why she should be released on bail, contrary to the wishes of government attorneys who are prosecuting the case).

And with Canada insisting that it will prosecute Meng to the full extent of the law over allegations that she mislead banks about the true relationship of a Huawei subsidiary called Skycom, angry Chinese officials have decided to issue an ultimatum directly to the Canadian ambassador, who was summoned to a meeting in Beijing on Saturday and told in no uncertain terms that Canada will face “severe consequences” if Meng isn’t released, according to the Wall Street Journal.

China’s foreign ministry publicized the warning in a statement (though Canadian officials have yet to comment):

Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng summoned Canada’s ambassador to Beijing, John McCallum, on Saturday to deliver the warning, according to a statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

The statement doesn’t mention the name of Huawei’s chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, though it refers to a Huawei “principal” taken into custody at U.S. request while changing planes in Vancouver, as was Ms. Meng. The statement accuses Canada of “severely violating the legal, legitimate rights of a Chinese citizen” and demands the person’s release.

“Otherwise there will be severe consequences, and Canada must bear the full responsibility,” said the statement, which was posted online late Saturday.

Phone calls to the Canadian Embassy rang unanswered while the Canadian government’s global affairs media office didn’t immediately respond to an email request for comment.

The warning marks an escalation in Beijing’s rhetoric as investors worry that the arrest could cause the shaky trade detente between the US and China to devolve into acrimony. A federal judge issued a warrant for Meng’s arrest back in August. Though after she was made aware of the warrant, Meng avoided travel to the US. She was arrested in Vancouver last Saturday while traveling to Mexico.

Aside from breaking off trade talks, some are worried that Beijing could seek to retaliate in kind by arresting a notable US executive. While the threats of Chinese bureaucrats might not amount to much in the eyes of US prosecutors, threatening a US executive with long-term detention in a Chinese “reeducation camp” just might.

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The trials of Julian Assange

Eresh Omar Jamal interviews Italian journalist Stefania Maurizi in relation to the situation of Julian Assange.

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Authored by Eresh Omar Jamal for The Daily Star (Bangladesh):


Stefania Maurizi is an investigative journalist working for the Italian daily La Repubblica. She has worked on all WikiLeaks releases of secret documents and partnered with Glenn Greenwald to reveal the Snowden Files about Italy. She has authored two books—Dossier WikiLeaks: Segreti Italiani and Una Bomba, Dieci Storie. In an exclusive interview with Eresh Omar Jamal of The Daily Star, Maurizi talks about the continued arbitrary detention of Julian Assange, why powerful governments see WikiLeaks as an existential threat, and the implications for global press freedom if Assange is prosecuted for publishing secret government documents.

You recently had the chance to visit Julian Assange at the Ecuadorian Embassy in London. When was this and can you describe the state he is in?

I was able to visit him on November 19, after 8 months of failed attempts, because last March the Ecuadorian authorities cut off all his social and professional contacts, with the exception of his lawyers, and in the preceding 8 months, I had asked for permission to visit him nine times without success—the Ecuadorian authorities didn’t reply at all to my requests.

When I was finally granted permission to visit the WikiLeaks founder at the Ecuadorian embassy in London last November, I was literally shocked to see the huge impact his isolation has had on his health. Because I have worked as a media partner with him and his organisation, WikiLeaks, for the last nine years, I have met him many times and can tell when there are any changes in his body and mind. I wondered how his mind could keep working; but after talking to him in the embassy for two hours, I have no doubt that his mind is working fine. I still wonder how that’s possible after six and a half years of detention without even one hour of being outdoors. I would have had a physical and mental breakdown after just 6 months, not after 6 years.

Detention and isolation are killing him slowly, and no one is doing anything to stop it. The media reports, the commentators comment, but at the end of the day, he is still there; having spent the last six and a half years confined to a tiny building with no access to sunlight or to proper medical treatment. And this is happening in London, in the heart of Europe. He is not sitting in an embassy in Pyongyang. It is truly tragic and completely unacceptable. And I’m simply appalled at the way the UK authorities have contributed to his arbitrary detention, and have opposed any solution to this intractable legal and diplomatic quagmire.

Having bravely defended Assange for years, the Ecuadorian government in late March cut off almost all his communications with the outside world. What prompted this turnabout and what is its purpose?

Politics has completely changed in Ecuador, and more in general, in Latin America, since 2012, when Ecuador granted Julian Assange asylum. I have never had any interviews with the current Ecuadorian President, Mr Lenin Moreno, but based on his public declarations, it’s rather obvious to me that he does not approve of what Julian Assange and WikiLeaks do.

With all his problems, Rafael Correa (former president of Ecuador) protected Assange from the very beginning, whereas Lenin Moreno considers him a liability. Moreno is under pressure from the right-wing politicians in Ecuador, and also from very powerful governments, like the US and UK governments, who will leave no stones unturned to jail Assange and destroy WikiLeaks. I am not sure how long Lenin Moreno will hold out against this immense pressure, provided that he wants to hold out at all.

Assange was vindicated not so long ago as to why he cannot leave the embassy when the US Department of Justice “accidentally” revealed in November that the founder of WikiLeaks had been secretly charged in the US. What do you think those charges are for?

It’s hard to say unless the charges get declassified and I really appreciate how the US organisation, Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press, is fighting before the court in the Eastern District of Virginia, US, to have the charges declassified.

There is no doubt whatsoever that the US authorities have always wanted to charge him for WikiLeaks’ publications. They have wanted to do so from the very beginning, since 2010, when WikiLeaks released its bombshell publications like the US diplomatic cables.

But the US authorities have been unable to do so due to the fact that WikiLeaks’ publication activities enjoy constitutional protection thanks to the First Amendment. So it will be very interesting to see how they will get around this constitutional protection in order to be able to charge him and other WikiLeaks journalists and put them all in jail.

Why have some of the most powerful governments and intelligence agencies invested so much resources to attack Assange and WikiLeaks?

You have to realise what it meant for the US national security complex to witness the publication of 76,000 secret documents about the war in Afghanistan, and then another 390,000 secret reports about the war in Iraq; followed by 251,287 US diplomatic cables and 779 secret files on the Guantanamo detainees; and to watch WikiLeaks save Edward Snowden, while the US was trying everything it could do, to show the world that there is no way of exposing the NSA’s secrets and keep your head attached to your neck having done so.

You have to realise what this means in an environment like that of the US, where even the most brilliant national security reporters didn’t dare to publish the name of the head of the CIA Counterterrorism Center, Michael D’Andrea, even though his name and the abuses committed by his centre were open secrets within their inner circles. Although the New York Times finally did, later on. But this was and still is the reality in the US, and even though it may not be as bad in the UK, it’s still quite bad. Look at what happened with the arrest of Glenn Greenwald’s husband, David Miranda, at the Heathrow Airport during the publication of the Snowden Files. Look at what happened with The Guardian being forced to destroy its hard drives during the publication of those files.

There are different levels of power in our societies and generally in our western democracies, criticism against the low, medium and high levels of power via journalistic activities is tolerated. Journalists may get hit with libel cases, have troubles with their careers; however, exposing those levels is permitted. The problem is when journalists and media organisations touch the highest levels, the levels where states and intelligence agencies operate.

WikiLeaks is a media organisation that has published secret documents about these entities for years, and Julian Assange and his staff have done this consistently, not occasionally like all the other media organisations do. You can imagine the anger these powerful entities have towards WikiLeaks—they perceive WikiLeaks as an existential threat and they want to set an example that says, “Don’t you dare expose our secrets and crimes, because if you do, we will smash you.”

If Assange is prosecuted, what impact might it have on other publishers and journalists and on press freedom globally?

It will have a huge impact and that is why organisations like the American Civil Liberties Union are speaking out. Never before in the US has an editor and media organisation ended up in jail for publishing information in the public interest. If Julian Assange and the WikiLeaks’ staff end up in jail, it will be the first time in US history and will set a devastating precedent for attack on press freedom in the US, but actually, not only in the US. Because if a country like the US, in which the activities of the press enjoy constitutional protection, treats journalists this way, you can imagine how other countries where the press doesn’t enjoy such strong protection will react. It will send a clear message to them: “Your hands are free.”

At the end of the day, I think there are two sides to this Assange and WikiLeaks saga: the US-UK national security complex, but more in general, I would say, the people within the national security complex, who want to destroy Julian Assange and WikiLeaks to send a clear message to journalists: “Don’t mess with us if you don’t want your lives to be destroyed.” While on the other side, there are the freedom of the press guys, meaning journalists like me, who want to demonstrate the exact opposite: that we can expose power at the highest levels, we can expose the darkest corners of governments and come out alive and well. And actually, we must do this, because real power is invisible and hides in the darkest corners.

Eresh Omar Jamal is a journalist for The Daily Star (Bangladesh). You can find him on Twitter: @EreshOmarJamal and Stefania Maurizi: @SMaurizi

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Diplomacy a Waste of Time with Washington

Trump’s JCPOA pullout and threatened INF Treaty withdrawal show Washington can never be trusted.

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Authored by Stephen Lendman:


The US is a serial lawbreaker, operating by its own rules, no others.

Time and again, it flagrantly breaches international treaties, Security Council resolutions, and other rule of law principles, including its own Constitution.

Diplomacy with Republicans and undemocratic Dems is an exercise in futility.

Trump’s JCPOA pullout and threatened INF Treaty withdrawal show Washington can never be trusted.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova’s proposed US outreach to discuss INF Treaty bilateral differences is well intended – despite knowing nothing is accomplished when talks with Washington are held, so why bother.

It’s just a matter of time before the US breaches another promise. They’re hollow when made. Kremlin good intentions aren’t enough to overcome US duplicity and implacable hostility toward Russia.

“We are ready to continue the dialogue in appropriate formats on the entire range of problems related to this document on the basis of professionalism and mutual respect, without putting forward unsubstantiated accusations and ultimatums. Our proposals are well known and remain on the negotiating table,” said Zakharova, adding:

“We have admitted (US) documents for further consideration. This text again includes accusations in the form of unfounded and unsubstantiated information about Russia’s alleged violations of this deal.

Comments to Washington like the above and similar remarks are like talking to a wall. The US demands all countries bend to its will, offering nothing in return but betrayal – especially in dealings with Russia, China, Iran, and other sovereign independent governments it seeks to replace with pro-Western puppet ones.

Not a shred of evidence suggests Russia violated its INF Treaty obligations. The accusation is baseless like all others against the Kremlin.

“No one has officially or by any other means handed over to Russia any files or facts, confirming that Russia breaches or does not comply with this deal,” Zakharova stressed, adding:

“We again confirm our consistent position that the INF Treaty is one of the key pillars of strategic stability and international security.”

It’s why the Trump regime intends abolishing it by pulling out. Strategic stability and international security defeat its agenda. Endless wars and chaos serve it.

The US, UK, France, Israel, and their imperial partners get away with repeated international law breaches because the EU, UN, and rest of the world community lack backbone enough to challenge them.

It’s how it is no matter how egregious their actions, notably their endless wars of aggression, supporting the world’s worst tinpot pot despots, and failing to back the rights of persecuted Palestinians and other long-suffering people.

The only language Republicans and Dems understand is toughness. Putin pretends a Russian/US partnership exists to his discredit – a show of weakness, not strength and responsible leadership.

In response to the Trump regime’s intention to withdraw from the INF Treaty, he said Russia will “react accordingly” – precisely what, he didn’t say.

A few suggestions, Mr. President.

  • Recall your ambassador to Washington. Expel the Trump regime’s envoy from Moscow and other key embassy personnel.
  • Arrest US spies in Russia you long ago identified. Imprison them until the US releases all Russian political prisoners. Agree to swap US detainees for all of them, no exceptions.
  • Install enough S-400 air defense systems to cover all Syrian airspace. Warn Washington, Britain, France and Israel that their aircraft, missiles and other aerial activities in its airspace will be destroyed in flight unless permission from Damascus is gotten – clearly not forthcoming.
  • Publicly and repeatedly accuse the above countries of supporting the scourge of ISIS and likeminded terrorists they pretend to oppose.
  • Warn them in no uncertain terms that their aggression against the Syrian Arab Republic no longer will be tolerated. Tell them the same goes if they dare attack Iran.
  • Stop pretending Mohammad bin Salman didn’t order Jamal Khashoggi’s murder, along with ignoring the kingdom’s horrendous human rights abuses domestically and abroad – including support for ISIS and other terrorists.
  • Put observance of rule of law principles and honor above dirty business as usual with the kingdom and other despotic regimes for profits.
  • Do the right things at all times and damn the short-term consequences – including toughness on Washington, the UK, Israel, and their imperial partners in high crimes of war and against humanity.

VISIT MY NEW WEB SITE: stephenlendman.org (Home – Stephen Lendman). Contact at [email protected].

My newest book as editor and contributor is titled “Flashpoint in Ukraine: How the US Drive for Hegemony Risks WW III.”

www.claritypress.com/LendmanIII.html

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