Whoever thinks that Iraq will not escalate into a full blown war is dreaming. Obama will commit US troops to the cause because of
humanitarian oil is at stake.
Hagel announces at Camp Pendleton that US has sent a new US military assessment team of 130 to Erbil today, says a large portion are Marines
— luis martinez (@LMartinezABC) August 12, 2014
Obama is stuck in a shit storm of epic proportions. He funded and grew ISIS into the powerhouse juggernaut of the Middle East, all in an effort to rid the world of Syria and get access to oil reserves and distribution lines in the region.
The whole strategy blew back on him when ISIS decided to do an about face and take over Iraq instead (all with US weapons and funding). Now that ISIS is pushing hard to overtake the Kurdish oil rich region in northern Iraq, Obama and his oil masters are ready to protect their business at all costs…i.e. American lives.
Despite reassurances that there will be “no US combat troops in Iraq again” on Friday, it appears – thanks to nuance of spin – that President Obama has changed his mind…
– OBAMA SAID TO CONSIDER SENDING ABOUT 75 MILITARY ADVISERS TO IRAQ: CNN
The question we have is – when does a “military adviser” stop being an ‘assassination consultant’ and start being a troops’ boot on the ground?
Now that the main stream media is in full spin, trying to label this whole charade a humanitarian effort aimed at saving the Yazidi people in northern Iraq (Yazidi people…seriously!!!), the real operation all comes down to preserving the massive amount of oil reserves under Kurdish control, which was being threatened when ISIS set its sites on the oil hub of Erbil.
To get a complete picture of what is happening right now and what is at stake going forward, we strongly recommend reading the post from the Acting Man blog titled, ISIS and the Coming Escalation in Iraq. Here are some excerpts:
ISIS is in fact fighting the Kurds now, and the vaunted Peshmerga were actually on the run until US airstrikes slowed ISIS down. Actually, they have so far failed to really slow it down much.
With support from US air strikes, Kurdish Peshmerga forces managed to dislodge ISIS from several villages it had captured in the course of its recent march on Erbil, but even while that happened, the militants took several other towns in Diyala province, and arguably more important ones. The IS-held territory has increased further as a result.
ISIS is now approaching the border between Iraq and Iran, which is almost certain to be regarded as an alarming development by Iran’s government. As we noted already back when the group first came to everybody’s attention, a free-for-all in Iraq remains a good possibility (reportedly, Iranian military advisors are already in Iraq, in parallel with American ones).
The end game is in fact a trilogy to be called Iraq 3. This one will be the war to end all wars in the Middle East. It will redraw borders, create new countries and costs millions of lives. The players will be many, from the US, the UK, France, Iran, Turkey, the Kurds, Israel, Syria and God knows who else.
From Acting Man blog:
ISIS has attracted an entire generation of radicalized Sunni militants to the region. If one watches interviews with their enemies such as e.g. Peshmerga fighters, one topic that is occasionally mentioned is that they don’t seem to fear death much. Combined with their well-known brutality, this unfoubteldy makes them a formidable fighting force. However, there is evidently far more to ISIS than that.
ISIS is quite careful not to alienate the population too much, in spite of strictly enforcing the sharia. Along similar lines, since ISIS is running Mosul, a number of Sunnis that have initially fled have returned to the city – which for the first time in an eternity has electricity around the clock. ISIS is a bit like Hitler in that way: it is so to speak making the trains run on time, while mercilessly killing large numbers of its perceived enemies and assorted “apostates” at the same time. The group also runs what appears to be a highly effective propaganda campaign – not only via electronic media, but also on the ground in the areas it conquers (its recruitment drive in Iraq is flourishing).
The Islamic State even has something like a national anthem by now, a jihadist anasheed (a piece of Islamic a capella music with very light or no instrumentation) – “Ummaty Qad Laha Farujn” (My Ummah, Dawn Has Appeared) – which actually sounds quite interesting (never mind the martial lyrics). In fact, the music is probably the only good thing to come from ISIS so far.See Also
All of the above suggests that it will be exceedingly difficult to effectively destroy ISIS. One method of countering it would in theory be the strategy that has already been successfully employed in almost defeating its predecessor organization AQI (“Al Qaeda in Iraq”). This mainly involved alienating AQI from its local support base. A guerrilla force cannot persist unless it has the support of the local population. However, it seems uncertain whether the same strategy can be used with success again. For one thing, Maliki’s suppression of the Sunnis has made ISIS the lesser evil in the eyes of many locals. For another thing, the organization has evolved a great deal and is highly unlikely to repeat AQI’s mistakes.
It seems to us that if the goals the president has announced in recent days are to be achieved, nothing short of a full-scale invasion of Iraq (as well as of Syria for good measure) is likely to suffice – and even then, success is by no means guaranteed. Another possibility – a remote one at this stage, but it cannot be ruled out just yet – is that the regional forces arrayed against ISIS actually get their act together for a change.
A reminder of what ISIS has captured so far:
This is the goal of ISIS going forward: